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Return to a High School Diploma and the Decision to Drop Out: New Evidence from Canada

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  • Daniel Parent

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the process by which young Canadians decide to leave high school and to situate it in the context of the value of a high school diploma over the 1981-1998 period, conditional on not pursuing post-secondary education. Evidence from the 1981-96 Canadian Censuses, the 1998 Canadian Labour Force Survey, and the 1981-1998 March Current Population Surveys shows that the wage premium to holding just a high school diploma in Canada is substantially lower than in the United States over the whole sample period and for all age groups. Turning to Statistics Canada's School Leavers Survey and its Follow-up, it is shown that high school graduates' labour market outcomes are essentially no better than those of dropouts, except perhaps in terms of employment rates. Finally, having established that the labour market value of holding just a high school diploma in Canada is rather low, I go back to the individuals' decision to leave school either as dropouts or graduates and find that they were very sensitive to the conditions of the local labour market. Those conditions affected their graduation decision through their impact on the probability of having a job in the twelve months preceding the date they left school either as graduates or as dropouts. Cette étude se penche sur le processus de transition de l'école vers le marché du travail et l'examine dans le contexte de l'évolution dans la valeur de détenir un diplôme d'études secondaires depuis 1981. Les principaux résultats découlant de l'analyse des données de recensement nous indiquent que bien que les diplômés du secondaire aient conservé un avantage en terme de taux d'emploi par rapport aux sortants depuis 1981, l'avantage salarial est demeuré beaucoup plus faible qu'aux États-Unis et ce, pour tous les groupes d'âge. Quant aux données du Suivi de l'Enquête sur les sortants, elles nous indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de différence majeure dans le processus de transition vers le marché du travail entre les sortants et les diplômés, outre le fait que les diplômés aient une probabilité plus grande d'avoir occupé un emploi à temps complet. Ayant établi que la valeur d'un diplôme d'études secondaires est substantiellement plus faible au Canada qu'aux États-Unis, la seconde étape de l'étude montre que le fait de diplômer ou non s'avère très sensible aux conditions économiques locales. Ces conditions opèrent par le biais de la probabilité d'avoir occupé un emploi dans les douzes mois précédant la fin des études secondaires, soit comme diplômé, soit comme sortant

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Parent, 2001. "Return to a High School Diploma and the Decision to Drop Out: New Evidence from Canada," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-09, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2001s-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ferrer, Ana M. & Menendez, Alicia, 2009. "The Returns to Flexible Postsecondary Education: The Effect of Delaying School," CLSSRN working papers clsrn_admin-2009-26, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 15 Mar 2009.

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