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Impact de la modification de la structure tarifaire américaine sur les exportations bioalimentaires québécoises - Partie 1 : Une analyse par le biais des élasticités au commerce

Author

Listed:
  • Lota Tamini
  • Mankan M. Koné
  • Aristide B. Valéa

Abstract

La nouvelle administration américaine s’est retirée du Partenariat Trans Pacifique et a émis sa volonté de revisiter le contenu de l’Accord de libre-échange nord-américain (ALENA). Il s’agit notamment d’obtenir un meilleur accès au marché des partenaires commerciaux (par exemple élargissement des contingents d’importations canadiens dans le secteur laitier) et de protéger certains secteurs de l’économie américaine par de nouvelles politiques commerciale et règlementaire (tarifs douaniers, règles d’origine, refonte de la fiscalité des entreprises…). Les nouvelles politiques commerciale et règlementaire des États-Unis pourraient avoir un impact important sur le commerce international bioalimentaire québécois, les impacts étant différents selon les filières. Afin d’analyser cet impact, une approche méthodologique s’appuyant sur la littérature sur les modèles de gravité est utilisée. Les données couvrent la période allant de 1995 à 2016 et les différentes provinces canadiennes d’une part (exportations) et d’autres parts (importateurs) les États des États-Unis pris individuellement, les pays de l’Union Européenne pris individuellement et les principaux autres partenaires du Québec (Chine, Mexique, Japon, Corée du sud). Les coefficients estimés (prix et tarifs) sont utilisés afin d’évaluer les élasticités au commerce des exportations bioalimentaires québécoises. Les résultats des estimations présentés au Tableau 1 montrent que 4 filières ont des élasticités des tarifs supérieures à l’unité, une hausse de 10% des tarifs se traduisant par une baisse de la valeur du commerce de plus de 10%. Ce sont les filières du sucre et des produits du sucre avec une baisse de 35,44%, bovine avec une baisse de 33,15%, des céréales avec une baisse de 24,77% et des produits oléagineux, huiles et graisses avec une baisse de 17,24%. Lorsque les valeurs moyennes du commerce des années 2014-2016 sont utilisées, la baisse du commerce global est de 8,46%.

Suggested Citation

  • Lota Tamini & Mankan M. Koné & Aristide B. Valéa, 2019. "Impact de la modification de la structure tarifaire américaine sur les exportations bioalimentaires québécoises - Partie 1 : Une analyse par le biais des élasticités au commerce," CIRANO Project Reports 2019rp-02, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirpro:2019rp-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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