IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cir/circah/2024pj-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pessimism could plunge us into a recession

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Moran
  • Dalibor Stevanovic
  • Adam Abdel Kader Touré

Abstract

→ Read the full report For over a year, various studies have been reporting that Canadian businesses and consumers are fairly pessimistic about the economy. Evaluating the extent to which this wave of pessimism could cause an economic slowdown presents a methodological challenge, one the authors tackled in a recent CIRANO study. Drawing upon Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology as well as Canadian and American historical data, the authors suggest that correlations between confidence and economic activity do indeed include a causal component. As a result, the recent declines observed in confidence indices could lead to an economic slowdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Adam Abdel Kader Touré, 2024. "Pessimism could plunge us into a recession," CIRANO Papers 2024pj-04, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:circah:2024pj-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2024PJ-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrei A Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2020. "Tfp, News, and “Sentiments”: the International Transmission of Business Cycles," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 302-341.
    2. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-1377, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baumeister, Christiane, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 16520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Benhima, Kenza & Cordonier, Rachel, 2022. "News, sentiment and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Jonathan Adams & Philip Barrett, 2024. "Shocks to Inflation Expectations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Steffen Elstner & Svetlana Rujin, 2022. "Growth Prospects and the Trade Balance in Advanced Economies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1209-1234, October.
    5. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
    6. Andresa Lagerborg & Evi Pappa & Morten O Ravn, 2023. "Sentimental Business Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(3), pages 1358-1393.
    7. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2021. "International confidence spillovers and business cycles in small open economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 773-798, August.
    8. Nabavi Larimi , Seyed Mohsen & Ehsani , Mohammad Ali & Tavakolian , Hossein, 2018. "Effect of Sentiments on Macroeconomic Variables in Iran: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(1), pages 1-30, January.
    9. Wu, Jieran, 2022. "Comments on “Sentiments and real business cycles”," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2019. "Mood Swings and Business Cycles: Evidence from Sign Restrictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1623-1649, September.
    11. Gene Ambrocio, 2022. "Euro-area business confidence and COVID-19," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(43), pages 4915-4929, September.
    12. Gene Ambrocio, 2022. "Euro-area business confidence and COVID-19," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(43), pages 4915-4929, September.
    13. Christopher Biolsi & Alex Lebedinsky, 2021. "Can changes in sentiments influence consumer behavior? Evidence from the Trump‐Russia investigation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1569-1592, October.
    14. Xu, Zhiwei & Zhou, Fei & Zhou, Jing, 2022. "Sentiments and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Kenza Benhima & Céline Poilly, 2017. "Do Misperceptions about Demand Matter? Theory and Evidence," Working Papers halshs-01518467, HAL.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Hashmat Khan & Jean-François Rouillard & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2019. "Consumer Confidence and Household Investment," Carleton Economic Papers 19-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 04 Jan 2024.
    18. Jongrim Ha & Seohyun Lee & Inhwan So, 2022. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Evidence from Geopolitical Swings on the Korean Peninsula," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 21-56, February.
    19. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2017. "Modeling consumer confidence and its role for expectation formation: A horse race," Economics Working Papers 2017-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    21. Stephen McKnight & Laura Povoledo, 2022. "Endogenous fluctuations and international business cycles," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 312-348, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cir:circah:2024pj-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ciranca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.