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Optimal Spending and Saving Strategies for Commodity-Rich Countries

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  • Alvaro Aguirre

Abstract

This paper builds a quantitative model to assess the optimal allocation of resources in an economy that is subject to a volatile source of income such as commodity exports, and with imperfect access to international financial markets. In this context the government faces a trade-off between smoothing expenditures and accumulating assets for precautionary motives, as well as saving in riskfree assets and investing in physical capital. The features of the model and the solution method allow for a detailed exploration of the trade-offs involved, particularly those related to volatility and uncertainty. The analysis sheds light about optimal saving and spending in stochastic environments, and best responses to large shocks and to permanent changes in stochastic processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvaro Aguirre, 2021. "Optimal Spending and Saving Strategies for Commodity-Rich Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 909, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:909
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_909.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Pieschacón, Anamaría, 2012. "The value of fiscal discipline for oil-exporting countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 250-268.
    7. Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & Shu-Chun S Yang & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2013. "Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 92-129, April.
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