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Aplicaciones del Modelo Binomial para el Análisis de Riesgo

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  • Rodrigo A. Alfaro.
  • Andrés Sagner
  • Carmen G. Silva

Abstract

In this paper we analyze two risk measures using the Binomial Model. In one case we show that the distance-to-default measure is indeed a Z-statistic. In an empirical application we estimate the probability of default for Chilean banks. Our second measure is a pseudo implied volatility which is obtained from a question. From a small survey we find that results are consistent with market values. Finally, we consider the worst case scenario analysis applied to Value at Risk and to callable bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo A. Alfaro. & Andrés Sagner & Carmen G. Silva, 2011. "Aplicaciones del Modelo Binomial para el Análisis de Riesgo," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 631, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:631
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_631.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rodrigo Alfaro A. & Natalia Gallardo S. & Camilo Vio G., 2010. "Análisis de Derechos Contingentes: Aplicación a Casas Comerciales," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(1), pages 73-82, April.
    2. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on the Chilean Banking System," IMF Working Papers 2010/108, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Rodrigo A. Alfaro & Carmen Gloria Silva, 2008. "Volatilidad de Indices Accionarios: El caso del IPSA," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 217-233.
    4. Felipe Zurita, 2008. "La Predicción de la Insolvencia de Empresas Chilenas," Documentos de Trabajo 336, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    5. Hans Byström, 2003. "Merton for Dummies: A Flexible Way of Modelling Default Risk," Research Paper Series 112, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    7. Dale J. Poirier, 1995. "Intermediate Statistics and Econometrics: A Comparative Approach," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161494, December.
    8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    9. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
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