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Análisis de Derechos Contingentes: Aplicación a Casas Comerciales

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  • Rodrigo Alfaro A.
  • Natalia Gallardo S.
  • Camilo Vio G.

Abstract

The Contingent Claim Analysis (CCA) is a useful tool for the risk analysis of listed companies. In this paper, we present the application of CCA to the department-store firms listed on the Chilean stock market. We obtain two main results: (1) the simplified version of distance to default proposed by Byström (2007) works for these firms, and (2) the distance to default found for this group of firms can be related to macroeconomic variables such as unemployment rate, output growth, and interest rate.
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Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Alfaro A. & Natalia Gallardo S. & Camilo Vio G., 2010. "Análisis de Derechos Contingentes: Aplicación a Casas Comerciales," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(1), pages 73-82, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchni:v:13:y:2010:i:1:p:73-82
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    2. Ke Wang & Darrell Duffie, 2004. "Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 747, Econometric Society.
    3. Felipe Zurita, 2008. "La Predicción de la Insolvencia de Empresas Chilenas," Documentos de Trabajo 336, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    4. Hans Byström, 2003. "Merton for Dummies: A Flexible Way of Modelling Default Risk," Research Paper Series 112, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Madeira, 2018. "Priorización de pago de deudas de consumo en Chile: el caso de bancos y casas comerciales," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 21(1), pages 118-132, April.
    2. Rodrigo A. Alfaro. & Andrés Sagner & Carmen G. Silva, 2011. "Aplicaciones del Modelo Binomial para el Análisis de Riesgo," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 631, Central Bank of Chile.

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