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Estimación del Premio por Riesgo en Chile

Author

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  • Francisca Lira
  • Claudia Sotz

Abstract

This study describes the different methodologies to measure the equity risk premium (ERP) and, in specific, the ERP for Chile between January 1993 and May 2010. The first one was estimate the historical difference in annual returns of stocks over bonds, which gave an ERP in the range of 2.8% and 6.7%, depending on the choice of the stock index and risk free security. On the other hand, and as an alternative to the first methodology, calculated the return on stocks based on current equity prices using a dividend discount model, which resulted in an ERP in a range of 4.9%> to 7.2%, depending on the type of risk free security considered. Finally, the authors added Chilean sovereign risk to the base premium for matured equity markets, obtaining an ERP between 3.7% and 7.6%.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisca Lira & Claudia Sotz, 2011. "Estimación del Premio por Riesgo en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 617, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:617
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_617.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bob Hannah, 2000. "Approaches to Current Stock Market Valuations," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2000(Summer), pages 27-36.
    2. Fernando Lefort & Eduardo Walker, 2002. "Cambios Estructurales e Integración. Discusión y Análisis del Mercado Accionario Chileno," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 39(116), pages 95-122.
    3. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zócimo Campos & Juan Tapia Gertosio & Paulina Natalia Gudaris, 2021. "Country Risk Premium: The Case of Chile," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 13(2), pages 317-344, September.
    2. Eduardo Olaberría, 2011. "The Optimal Inflation Tax in the Presence of Imperfect Deposit – Currency Substitution," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 619, Central Bank of Chile.

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