IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chb/bcchwp/488.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries: The Role of Credits and Fiscal Policy

Author

Listed:
  • María Elisa Farías

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the role of credits, R&D spending, and fiscal policy in contributing to reduce volatility, and enhance the adjustment capacity to shocks. The foregoing is especially relevant for emerging countries like Chile, which are frequently threatened by external shocks. In addition, credit market distortions are more frequent in these economies. Using an empirical analysis for a panel data of 72 countries between 1950 and 2004, we find positive correlations between credits, R&D spending, fiscal policy, and growth. On the other hand, we find negative correlations between these variables and volatility. Testing different types of models we find very robust results, suggesting that countries with more developed domestic financial markets are in better conditions to recover growth after a shock. The same is true when countries apply fiscal policies that guarantee “fiscal discipline”.

Suggested Citation

  • María Elisa Farías, 2008. "Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries: The Role of Credits and Fiscal Policy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 488, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:488
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_488.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valerie R. Bencivenga & Bruce D. Smith, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209.
    2. Loayza, Norman V. & Ranciere, Romain, 2006. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1051-1076, June.
    3. Comin, Diego & Mulani, Sunil, 2009. "A theory of growth and volatility at the aggregate and firm level," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1023-1042, November.
    4. Stadler, George W, 1990. "Business Cycle Models with Endogenous Technology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 763-778, September.
    5. Alwyn Young, 1992. "A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 13-64, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-191, January.
    7. Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-1398, November.
    8. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    9. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    10. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2009. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-57, January.
    11. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Lederman, Daniel & Saenz, Laura, 2005. "Innovation and development around the world, 1960-2000," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3774, The World Bank.
    13. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2005. "The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 173-222.
    14. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April.
    15. Fernandez, Viviana, 2006. "Does domestic cooperation lead to business-cycle convergence and financial linkages?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 369-396, July.
    16. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "On the timing of innovation in stochastic Schumpeterian growth models," Working Paper Series WP-04-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. World Bank, 2007. "World Development Indicators 2007," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8150.
    18. Solow, Robert M., 2000. "Growth Theory: An Exposition," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780195109030.
    19. Fischer, Andreas M, 1993. "Is Money Really Exogenous? Testing for Weak Exogeneity in Swiss Money Demand," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 248-258, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    2. Mohammed Ahmed, Abdullahi, 2019. "Financial Development and Central Bank Bilateral Currency Swaps: Is there Trade Effect?," MPRA Paper 109875, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Aug 2019.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2005. "The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 173-222.
    4. Vighneswara Swamy & Munusamy Dharani, 2021. "Thresholds in finance–growth nexus: Evidence from G‐7 economies," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 1-40, March.
    5. Goñi, Edwin & Maloney, William F., 2017. "Why don’t poor countries do R&D? Varying rates of factor returns across the development process," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 126-147.
    6. Mohammed Ahmed, Abdullahi, 2019. "China’s Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement: Strategic Move to Foster Political and Financial Hegemony," MPRA Paper 109879, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Oct 2019.
    7. Tongurai, Jittima & Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2018. "The impact of the banking sector on economic structure and growth," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 193-207.
    8. Serigne Bassirou Lo & Lassana Cissokho, 2023. "Financial development, institutions and industrialization in sub‐Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(2), pages 152-164, June.
    9. Carranza, Luis & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E., 2004. "Financial intermediation, variability and the development process," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 27-54, February.
    10. Grier, Kevin & Grier, Robin, 2007. "Only income diverges: A neoclassical anomaly," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 25-45, September.
    11. Michiel Bijlsma & Andrei Dubovik, 2014. "Banks, Financial Markets and Growth in Developed Countries: a Survey of the empirical literature," CPB Discussion Paper 266, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Alejandro Gaytan & Romain Ranciere, 2004. "Wealth, Financial Intermediation and Growth," Working Papers 191, Barcelona School of Economics.
    13. Ahlin, Christian & Pang, Jiaren, 2008. "Are financial development and corruption control substitutes in promoting growth?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 414-433, June.
    14. Ramírez, Carlos D., 2009. "Bank fragility, "money under the mattress", and long-run growth: US evidence from the "perfect" Panic of 1893," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2185-2198, December.
    15. Alejandro Gaytan & Romain Rancière, 2001. "Banks, liquidity crises and economic growth," Economics Working Papers 853, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2003.
    16. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    17. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Noor Azuddin Yakob, 2017. "Revisiting stock market development and economic growth nexus: The moderating role of foreign capital inflows and exchange rates," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1329975-132, January.
    18. Akech David Akuien, 2023. "The importance of Banking sector in the growth of Nation economy: A case study of Stanbic bank in South Sudan," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 28(1), pages 1-20.
    19. Beck, Thorsten, 2006. "Creating an efficient financial system : challenges in a global economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3856, The World Bank.
    20. Kunieda, Takuma & Okada, Keisuke & Shibata, Akihisa, 2011. "Corruption, Globalization, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," MPRA Paper 35355, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:488. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alvaro Castillo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bccgvcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.