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Global Health and the New Bottom Billion: What Do Shifts in Global Poverty and the Global Disease Burden Mean for GAVI and the Global Fund? - Working Paper 270

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  • Amanda Glassman, Denizhan Duran, Andy Sumner

Abstract

After a decade of rapid growth in average incomes, many countries have attained middle-income country (MIC) status. At the same time, the total number of poor people hasn’t fallen as much as one might expect and, as a result, most of the world’s poor now live in MICs. In fact, there are up to a billion poor people or a ‘new bottom billion’ living not in the world’s poorest countries but in MICs. Not only has the global distribution of poverty shifted to MICs, so has the global disease burden. This paper examines the implications of this ‘new bottom billion’ for global health efforts and recommends a tailored middle-income strategy for the Global Fund and GAVI. The paper describes trends in the global distribution of poverty, preventable infectious diseases, and health aid response to date; revisits the rationale for health aid through agencies like GAVI and the Global Fund; and proposes a new MIC strategy and components, concluding with recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Amanda Glassman, Denizhan Duran, Andy Sumner, 2011. "Global Health and the New Bottom Billion: What Do Shifts in Global Poverty and the Global Disease Burden Mean for GAVI and the Global Fund? - Working Paper 270," Working Papers 270, Center for Global Development.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:270
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ravallion Martin, 2010. "Do Poorer Countries Have Less Capacity for Redistribution?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-31, December.
    2. Kanbur, Ravi, 2011. "Poor Countries or Poor People? Development Assistance and the New Geography of Global Poverty," CEPR Discussion Papers 8489, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Todd Moss and Ben Leo, 2011. "IDA at 65: Heading Toward Retirement or a Fragile Lease on Life? - Working Paper 246," Working Papers 246, Center for Global Development.
    4. Nancy Birdsall and Benjamin Leo, 2011. "Find Me the Money: Financing Climate and Other Global Public Goods - Working Paper 248," Working Papers 248, Center for Global Development.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andy Sumner, 2013. "Global Poverty, Aid, and Middle-Income Countries: Are the Country Classifications Moribund or is Global Poverty in the Process of 'Nationalizing'?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-062, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Castro, Marcelo Araújo & Mattos, Enlinson & Patriota, Fernanda, 2016. "Spatial spillovers and political coordination in public health provision," Textos para discussão 417, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    3. Andy Sumner & Peter Edward, 2013. "From Low Income, High Poverty to High-Income, No Poverty? An Optimistic View of the Long-Run Evolution of Poverty in Indonesia By International Poverty Lines, 1984–2030," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201310, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jun 2013.
    4. Sumner, Andy, 2013. "Global Poverty, Aid, and Middle-Income Countries: Are the Country Classifications Moribund or is Global Poverty in the Process of 'Nationalizing'?," WIDER Working Paper Series 062, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Andy Sumner, 2012. "Where Will the World’s Poor Live? An Update on Global Poverty and the New Bottom Billion," Working Papers 305, Center for Global Development.
    6. Ugo Gentilini & Andy Sumner, 2012. "Poverty Where People Live: What Do National Poverty Lines Tell us About Global Poverty?," One Pager 182, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    7. Mattos, Enlinson & Ribeiro, Fernanda Patriota Salles, 2015. "Unconditional transfers goes to health? Evidence from Brazilian municipalities," Textos para discussão 376, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    8. Andy Sumner, 2012. "The Buoyant Billions: How “Middle Class†Are the New Middle Classes in Developing Countries? (And Why Does It Matter?)," Working Papers id:5169, eSocialSciences.
    9. Andy Sumner, 2012. "The Buoyant Billions: How “Middle Class” Are the New Middle Classes in Developing Countries? (And Why Does It Matter?)," Working Papers 309, Center for Global Development.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aid; global health; middle income countries; GAVI; Global Fund;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development

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