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IDA at 65: Heading Toward Retirement or a Fragile Lease on Life? - Working Paper 246

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  • Todd Moss and Ben Leo

Abstract

Even under conservative assumptions, IDA will likely face a wave of country graduations by 2025. We project that it will lose more than half of its client countries and that the total population living in IDA-eligible countries will plunge by two-thirds. The remaining IDA-eligible countries will be significantly smaller in size and overwhelmingly African, and a majority are currently considered fragile or post-conflict. This drastically altered client base will have significant implications for IDA's operational and financial models. We conclude with three possible options for IDA and recommend that World Bank shareholders and management begin frank discussions on its future sooner rather than later.

Suggested Citation

  • Todd Moss and Ben Leo, 2011. "IDA at 65: Heading Toward Retirement or a Fragile Lease on Life? - Working Paper 246," Working Papers 246, Center for Global Development.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:246
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2013. "The Future of Global Poverty in a Multi-Speed World: New Estimates of Scale, Location and Cost," Working Papers 111, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    2. Ravi Kanbur, 2019. "Inequality in a global perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 35(3), pages 431-444.
    3. Ravi Kanbur, 2017. "Citizenship, Migration and Opportunity," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 429-441, October.
    4. Sumner, Andy, 2012. "Where Do The Poor Live?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 865-877.
    5. Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers & Karel Verbeke, 2015. "What to do after the clean slate? Post-relief public debt sustainability and management," BeFinD Working Papers 0103, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    6. Kanbur, Ravi, 2012. "Aid To The Poor In Middle Income Countries And The Future Of Ida," Working Papers 128795, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    7. Todd Moss & Stephanie Majerowicz, 2012. "No Longer Poor: Ghana’s New Income Status and Implications of Graduation from IDA," Working Papers 300, Center for Global Development.
    8. Scott Morris & Madeleine Gleave, 2016. "The World Bank at 75," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(01), pages 1-39, February.
    9. Dobronogov, Anton & Gelb, Alan & Saldanha, Fernando Brant, 2014. "How should donors respond to resource windfalls in poor countries ? from aid to insurance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6952, The World Bank.
    10. repec:nam:befdwp:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Knack, Stephen & Xu, Lixin Colin & Zou, Ben, 2014. "Interactions among donors'aid allocations : evidence from an exogenous World Bank income threshold," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7039, The World Bank.
    12. Andy Sumner, 2012. "The Buoyant Billions: How “Middle Class” Are the New Middle Classes in Developing Countries? (And Why Does It Matter?)," Working Papers 309, Center for Global Development.
    13. Ravi Kanbur, 2016. "Can a Country Be a Donor and a Recipient of Aid?," India Studies in Business and Economics, in: S. Mahendra Dev & P.G. Babu (ed.), Development in India, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 71-81, Springer.
    14. Andy Sumner, 2013. "Global Poverty, Aid, and Middle-Income Countries: Are the Country Classifications Moribund or is Global Poverty in the Process of 'Nationalizing'?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-062, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Fantom,Neil James & Serajuddin,Umar, 2016. "The World Bank's classification of countries by income," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7528, The World Bank.
    16. Sumner, Andy, 2013. "Global Poverty, Aid, and Middle-Income Countries: Are the Country Classifications Moribund or is Global Poverty in the Process of 'Nationalizing'?," WIDER Working Paper Series 062, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Andy Sumner, 2012. "Where Will the World’s Poor Live? An Update on Global Poverty and the New Bottom Billion," Working Papers 305, Center for Global Development.
    18. Edward, Peter & Sumner, Andy, 2014. "Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference Do Method and Assumptions Make?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 67-82.
    19. Ugo Gentilini & Andy Sumner, 2012. "Poverty Where People Live: What Do National Poverty Lines Tell us About Global Poverty?," One Pager 182, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    20. Amanda Glassman, Denizhan Duran, Andy Sumner, 2011. "Global Health and the New Bottom Billion: What Do Shifts in Global Poverty and the Global Disease Burden Mean for GAVI and the Global Fund? - Working Paper 270," Working Papers 270, Center for Global Development.
    21. Ravi Kanbur, 2012. "Aid To The Poor In Middle Income Countries And The Future Of The International Development Association," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-9.
    22. Charles Kenny, Jonathan Karver, and Andy Sumner, 2012. "MDGs 2.0: What Goals, Targets, and Timeframe? - Working Paper 297," Working Papers 297, Center for Global Development.
    23. Andy Sumner, 2012. "The Buoyant Billions: How “Middle Class†Are the New Middle Classes in Developing Countries? (And Why Does It Matter?)," Working Papers id:5169, eSocialSciences.

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