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Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through (Subsequently published in "Journal of Money, Credit and Banking", Volume 40, Issue 7, October 2008, pp. 1407-1438. )

Author

Listed:
  • Takatoshi Ito

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Kiyotaka Sato

    (Faculty of Economics, Yokohama National University)

Abstract

The pass-through effects of exchange rate changes on the domestic prices in the East Asian countries are examined using a VAR analysis including several price indices and domestic macroeconomic variables as well as the exchange rate. Results from the VAR analysis show that (1) the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices was quite high in the crisis-hit countries; (2) the pass-through to CPI was generally low, with a notable exception of Indonesia: and (3) in Indonesia, both the impulse response of monetary policy variables to exchange rate shocks and that of CPI to monetary policy shocks are positive, large and statistically significant. Thus, Indonesia's accommodative monetary policy as well as the high degree of the CPI responsiveness to exchange rate changes was important factors that resulted in the spiraling effects of domestic price inflation and sharp nominal exchange rate depreciation in the post-crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Takatoshi Ito & Kiyotaka Sato, 2006. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through (Subsequently published in "Journal of Money, Credit and Banking", Volume 4," CARF F-Series CARF-F-063, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf063
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    File URL: https://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/old/pdf/workingpaper/fseries/64.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2005. "High‐Frequency Contagion of Currency Crises in Asia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 357-381, December.
    2. Ross McLeod, 2003. "Towards improved monetary policy in Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 303-324.
    3. Ito, Takatoshi & Ogawa, Eiji & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 1998. "How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 256-304, December.
    4. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 243, European Central Bank.
    5. Todd E. Clark, 1999. "The Responses Of Prices At Different Stages Of Production To Monetary Policy Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 420-433, August.
    6. Mr. Hamid Faruqee, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area: The Role of Asymmetric Pricing Behavior," IMF Working Papers 2004/014, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. SASAKI Yuri & YOSHIDA Yushi & Piotr Kansho OTSUBO, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through on Japanese prices: Import price, producer price, and core CPI," Discussion papers 19078, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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