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Topic Salience and Political Polarization: Evidence from the German “PISA shock”

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  • Pietro Sancassani

Abstract

Does the salience of a topic affect polarization in related parliamentary debates? When discussing a salient topic, politicians might adopt more extreme stances to gain electoral consensus. Alternatively, they could converge towards more moderate positions to find a compromise. Using parliamentary debates from the 16 German state parliaments, I exploit the exogenous increase in the salience of education induced by the unexpectedly low performance of German students in the PISA 2000 test—the German “PISA shock”. I combine machine-learning and text analysis techniques to obtain topic-specific measures of polarization of parliamentary debates. In a difference-in-differences framework, I find that the PISA shock caused an 8.8% of a standard deviation increase in polarization of education debates compared to other topics. The effect is long-lasting and fades after about six years.

Suggested Citation

  • Pietro Sancassani, 2023. "Topic Salience and Political Polarization: Evidence from the German “PISA shock”," ifo Working Paper Series 402, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_402
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
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    3. Adam Bonica, 2013. "Ideology and Interests in the Political Marketplace," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(2), pages 294-311, April.
    4. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
    5. Davoli, Maddalena & Entorf, Horst, 2018. "The PISA Shock, Socioeconomic Inequality, and School Reforms in Germany," IZA Policy Papers 140, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Polarization; text analysis; machine learning; Germany; PISA shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations

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