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Expected Effects of the US Tax Reform on Other Countries: Global and Local Survey Evidence

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  • Dorine Boumans
  • Clemens Fuest
  • Carla Krolage
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act constitutes the largest change to the US tax system since the 1980s and thoroughly alters the way in which multinational companies are taxed. Current assessments on the reform’s international impact vary widely. This article sheds light on the tax reform’s expected effects on other countries. We first use representative German business survey data to analyze the impact of the reform on German firms. Many firms with substantial US revenues or capacities in the US intend to expand US investment in response to the reform, in particular large firms and manufacturing companies. The effects on investment in Germany are ambiguous: While some firms substitute between investment locations, others expand in both countries. We subsequently extend our analysis to a global level using worldwide survey data. The results suggest a negative impact on tax revenues and investment in countries with close economic ties to the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorine Boumans & Clemens Fuest & Carla Krolage & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Expected Effects of the US Tax Reform on Other Countries: Global and Local Survey Evidence," ifo Working Paper Series 331, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_331
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    Cited by:

    1. Dorine Boumans & Pauliina Sandqvist & Stefan Sauer, 2020. "World Economy: What Does the Road to Recovery from COVID-19 Look Like? Expert Survey on Worldwide Effects of the Pandemic," EconPol Policy Reports 26, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Dorine Boumans & Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer, 2020. "Covid-19: The World Economy Needs a Lifeline – But Which One?," EconPol Policy Brief 27, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Madeline Hanson & Daniela Hauser & Romanos Priftis, 2021. "Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes," Staff Working Papers 21-41, Bank of Canada.
    4. Luisa Dörr & Klaus Gründler & Philipp Heil & Niklas Potrafke & Timo Wochner, 2024. "Experteneinschätzungen zum globalen Standortwettbewerb," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 142.
    5. Dorine Boumans & Henrik Müller & Stefan Sauer, 2022. "How Media Content Influences Economic Expectations: Evidence from a Global Expert Survey," ifo Working Paper Series 380, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Klaus Gründler & Philipp Heil & Niklas Potrafke & Timo Wochner, 2023. "The US-Inflation Reduction Act: Global Assessments of Economic Experts," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 138.
    7. Demmelhuber Katrin & Sauer Stefan & Wohlrabe Klaus, 2023. "Beyond the Business Climate: Supplementary Questions in the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(2), pages 169-182, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    US tax reform; Tax Cuts and Jobs Act; corporate tax; firm responses; survey; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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