IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_9368.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Carbon Offsets Offset Carbon?

Author

Listed:
  • Raphael Calel
  • Jonathan Colmer
  • Antoine Dechezleprêtre
  • Matthieu Glachant

Abstract

We develop and implement a new method for identifying wasted subsidies, and use it to provide systematic evidence on the misallocation of carbon offsets in the Clean Development Mechanism—the world’s largest carbon offset program. Using newly constructed data on the locations and characteristics of 1,350 wind farms in India—a context where it was believed, ex ante, that the Clean Development Mechanism could significantly increase development above baseline projections—we estimate that at least 52% of approved carbon offsets were allocated to projects that would very likely have been built anyway. In addition to wasting scarce resources, we estimate that the sale of these offsets to regulated polluters has substantially increased global carbon dioxide emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Calel & Jonathan Colmer & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Matthieu Glachant, 2021. "Do Carbon Offsets Offset Carbon?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9368, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9368
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp9368.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas W. Davis, 2008. "The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(1), pages 38-81, February.
    2. Soren T. Anderson & James M. Sallee, 2011. "Using Loopholes to Reveal the Marginal Cost of Regulation: The Case of Fuel-Economy Standards," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1375-1409, June.
    3. Bloom, Nick & Griffith, Rachel & Van Reenen, John, 2002. "Do R&D tax credits work? Evidence from a panel of countries 1979-1997," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 1-31, July.
    4. Joseph S. Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2020. "Is Air Pollution Regulation Too Lenient? Evidence from US Offset Markets," NBER Working Papers 28199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Lambert Richard Schneider, 2011. "Perverse incentives under the CDM: an evaluation of HFC-23 destruction projects," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 851-864, March.
    6. Lambert Schneider, 2009. "Assessing the additionality of CDM projects: practical experiences and lessons learned," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 242-254, May.
    7. Moretti, Enrico & Wilson, Daniel J., 2014. "State incentives for innovation, star scientists and jobs: Evidence from biotech," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 20-38.
    8. Paulina Oliva, 2015. "Environmental Regulations and Corruption: Automobile Emissions in Mexico City," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(3), pages 686-724.
    9. Pierre Azoulay & Joshua S Graff Zivin & Danielle Li & Bhaven N Sampat, 2019. "Public R&D Investments and Private-sector Patenting: Evidence from NIH Funding Rules," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(1), pages 117-152.
    10. Dominic P. Parker & Bryan Vadheim, 2017. "Resource Cursed or Policy Cursed? US Regulation of Conflict Minerals and Violence in the Congo," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-49.
    11. Cailin Slattery & Owen Zidar, 2020. "Evaluating State and Local Business Tax Incentives," Working Papers 261, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    12. Stephen P. Holland & Erin T. Mansur & Nicholas Z. Muller & Andrew J. Yates, 2016. "Are There Environmental Benefits from Driving Electric Vehicles? The Importance of Local Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3700-3729, December.
    13. Berry, Steven T, 1992. "Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 889-917, July.
    14. Dechezlepretre, Antoine & Einiö, Elias & Martin, Ralf & Nguyen, Kieu-Trang & Reenen, John Van, 2016. "Do tax incentives for research increase firm innovation? An RD design for R&D, patents and spillovers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66428, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Chandra, Ambarish & Gulati, Sumeet & Kandlikar, Milind, 2010. "Green drivers or free riders? An analysis of tax rebates for hybrid vehicles," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 78-93, September.
    16. Evan Mast, 2020. "Race to the Bottom? Local Tax Break Competition and Business Location," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 288-317, January.
    17. Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Elias Einiö & Ralf Martin & Kieu-Trang Nguyen & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Do tax Incentives for Research Increase Firm Innovation? An RD Design for R&D," NBER Working Papers 22405, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Filmer,Deon P. & Friedman,Jed & Kandpal,Eeshani & Onishi,Junko, 2018. "Cash Transfers, Food Prices, and Nutrition Impacts on Nonbeneficiary Children," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8377, The World Bank.
    19. Alexandre Kossoy & Grzegorz Peszko & Klaus Oppermann & Nicolai Prytz & Noemie Klein & Kornelis Blok & Long Lam & Lindee Wong & Bram Borkent, "undated". "State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015," World Bank Publications - Reports 22630, The World Bank Group.
    20. Sanya Carley & Lincoln L. Davies & David B. Spence & Nikolaos Zirogiannis, 2018. "Empirical evaluation of the stringency and design of renewable portfolio standards," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 754-763, September.
    21. Cailin Slattery & Owen Zidar, 2020. "Evaluating State and Local Business Incentives," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 90-118, Spring.
    22. Koichiro Ito & James M. Sallee, 2018. "The Economics of Attribute-Based Regulation: Theory and Evidence from Fuel Economy Standards," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 319-336, May.
    23. Jennifer L. Doleac & Benjamin Hansen, 2020. "The Unintended Consequences of “Ban the Box”: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories Are Hidden," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(2), pages 321-374.
    24. Maximilian Auffhammer & Solomon M. Hsiang & Wolfram Schlenker & Adam Sobel, 2013. "Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(2), pages 181-198, July.
    25. Carta, José A. & Velázquez, Sergio & Cabrera, Pedro, 2013. "A review of measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methods used to estimate long-term wind characteristics at a target site," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 362-400.
    26. Lambert Schneider & Anja Kollmuss, 2015. "Perverse effects of carbon markets on HFC-23 and SF6 abatement projects in Russia," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1061-1063, December.
    27. John E. Kwoka, 1983. "The Limits of Market-Oriented Regulatory Techniques: The Case of Automotive Fuel Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(4), pages 695-704.
    28. Blanco, María Isabel, 2009. "The economics of wind energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(6-7), pages 1372-1382, August.
    29. Axel Michaelowa & Igor Shishlov & Dario Brescia, 2019. "Evolution of international carbon markets: lessons for the Paris Agreement," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(6), November.
    30. Sabrina T. Howell, 2017. "Financing Innovation: Evidence from R&D Grants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1136-1164, April.
    31. World Bank Group, "undated". "State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2019," World Bank Publications - Reports 31755, The World Bank Group.
    32. Prashant Bharadwaj & Leah K Lakdawala & Nicholas Li, 2020. "Perverse Consequences of Well Intentioned Regulation: Evidence from India’s Child Labor Ban," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1158-1195.
    33. Kathuria, Vinish & Ray, Pradeep & Bhangaonkar, Rekha, 2015. "FDI (foreign direct investment) in wind energy sector in India: Testing the effectiveness of state policies using panel data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 190-202.
    34. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Stanley S. Reynolds & Mario Samano, 2016. "Intermittency and the Value of Renewable Energy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1187-1234.
    35. Jagadeesh, A., 2000. "Wind energy development in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, India Institutional dynamics and barriers -- A case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 157-168, March.
    36. Joseph Cullen, 2013. "Measuring the Environmental Benefits of Wind-Generated Electricity," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 107-133, November.
    37. Michael Wara, 2007. "Is the global carbon market working?," Nature, Nature, vol. 445(7128), pages 595-596, February.
    38. Taylor, Rebecca L.C., 2019. "Bag leakage: The effect of disposable carryout bag regulations on unregulated bags," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 254-271.
    39. Hall, Bronwyn & Van Reenen, John, 2000. "How effective are fiscal incentives for R&D? A review of the evidence," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 449-469, April.
    40. Boomhower, Judson & Davis, Lucas W., 2014. "A credible approach for measuring inframarginal participation in energy efficiency programs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 67-79.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Filewod, Ben & McCarney, Geoff, 2023. "Avoiding leakage from nature-based offsets by design," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117928, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Estelle Cantillon & Aurélie Slechten, 2023. "Market Design for the Environment," NBER Chapters, in: New Directions in Market Design, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Thales A. P. West & Sven Wunder & Erin O. Sills & Jan Borner & Sami W. Rifai & Alexandra N. Neidermeier & Andreas Kontoleon, 2023. "Action needed to make carbon offsets from tropical forest conservation work for climate change mitigation," Papers 2301.03354, arXiv.org.
    4. Aliénor Cameron & Marc Baudry, 2023. "The case for carbon leakage and border adjustments: where do economists stand?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(3), pages 435-469, July.
    5. Fabra, Natalia & Reguant, Mar, 2024. "The energy transition: A balancing act," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Filewod, Ben & McCarney, Geoff, 2023. "Avoiding leakage from nature-based offsets by design," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117927, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Rodemeier, Matthias, 2023. "Willingness to Pay for Carbon Mitigation: Field Evidence from the Market for Carbon Offsets," IZA Discussion Papers 15939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Jaraitė, Jūratė & Kurtyka, Oliwia & Ollivier, Hélène, 2022. "Take a ride on the (not so) green side: How do CDM projects affect Indian manufacturing firms’ environmental performance?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    9. Gregory Trencher & Sascha Nick & Jordan Carlson & Matthew Johnson, 2024. "Demand for low-quality offsets by major companies undermines climate integrity of the voluntary carbon market," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heath Milsom, Luke & Roland, Isabelle, 2021. "Minimum wages and the China syndrome: causal evidence from US local labor markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Tania Babina & Sabrina T. Howell, 2018. "Entrepreneurial Spillovers from Corporate R&D," NBER Working Papers 25360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Tania Babina & Alex Xi He & Sabrina T. Howell & Elisabeth Ruth Perlman & Joseph Staudt, 2020. "The Color of Money: Federal vs. Industry Funding of University Research," NBER Working Papers 28160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Arvid Raknerud & Diana-Cristina Iancu & Øivind A. Nilsen, 2018. "Public R&D Support and Firms’ Performance. A Panel Data Study," Discussion Papers 878, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. Matthew R. Denes & Sabrina T. Howell & Filippo Mezzanotti & Xinxin Wang & Ting Xu, 2020. "Investor Tax Credits and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from U.S. States," NBER Working Papers 27751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sabrina T. Howell & Filippo Mezzanotti, 2019. "Financing Entrepreneurship through the Tax Code: Angel Investor Tax Credits," NBER Working Papers 26486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Enrico Moretti & Claudia Steinwender & John Van Reenen, 2019. "The intellectual spoils of war? Defense R&D, productivity and international spillovers," CEP Discussion Papers dp1662, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Nathaniel Lane, 2020. "The New Empirics of Industrial Policy," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 209-234, June.
    9. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
    10. Reda Cherif & Christoph Grimpe & Fuad Hasanov & Wolfgang Sofka, 2023. "Promoting Innovation: The Differential Impact of R&D Subsidies," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 187-241, December.
    11. Labeaga, José M. & Martínez-Ros, Ester & Sanchis, Amparo & Sanchis, Juan A., 2021. "Does persistence in using R&D tax credits help to achieve product innovations?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Ufuk Akcigit & John Grigsby & Tom Nicholas & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2018. "Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century," NBER Working Papers 24982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Chia-Wen Chen & Wei-Min Hu & Christopher R. Knittel, 2017. "Subsidizing Fuel Efficient Cars: Evidence from China's Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 23045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Howell, Sabrina T. & Rathje, Jason & Van Reenen, John & Wong, Jun, 2021. "Opening up Military Innovation: Causal Effects of 'Bottom-up' Reforms to U.S. Defense Research," IZA Discussion Papers 14297, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Holt, Jared & Skali, Ahmed & Thomson, Russell, 2021. "The additionality of R&D tax policy: Quasi-experimental evidence," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    16. Howell, Sabrina T. & Rathje, Jason & Van Reenen, John & Wong, Jun, 2021. "Opening up military innovation: causal effects of reforms to US defense research," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114430, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    18. Ivus, Olena & Jose, Manu & Sharma, Ruchi, 2021. "R&D tax credit and innovation: Evidence from private firms in india," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1).
    19. Alessandro Sterlacchini & Francesco Venturini, 2019. "R&D tax incentives in EU countries: does the impact vary with firm size?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 687-708, October.
    20. Jia, Junxue & Ma, Guangrong, 2017. "Do R&D tax incentives work? Firm-level evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 50-66.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    carbon offsets; infra-marginal support; subsidies; investment; wind power; misallocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9368. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.