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The Impact of Covid-19 on Economic Activity: Evidence from Administrative Tax Registers

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  • Nikolay Angelov
  • Daniel Waldenström

Abstract

We use population-wide tax register data to document the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on firm sales, tax revenues, and sick pay in Sweden. The pandemic impact is identified using within-year, between-year, and geographical variation, and our data allows us to run placebo tests. Our findings confirm the large negative effects of the pandemic, but shed new light on their magnitudes and sensitivity to COVID-19 morbidity rates. Specifically, we find that the impact on VAT and firm sales was larger than on commonly used industrial and service production indexes, larger than the effect on electricity for industrial use, but less than the effect on excise taxes on air travel. The pandemic’s impact on short-term sick pay is large, but unlike tax payments, it does not vary with local infection rates, indicating behavioral responses to more generous rules for sickness insurance during the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay Angelov & Daniel Waldenström, 2021. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Economic Activity: Evidence from Administrative Tax Registers," CESifo Working Paper Series 9182, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9182
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adam Sheridan & Asger Lau Andersen & Emil Toft Hansen & Niels Johannesen, 2020. "Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(34), pages 20468-20473, August.
    2. Jeffrey Clemens & Stan Veuger, 2020. "Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for State Government Tax Revenues," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 619-644, September.
    3. Raj Chetty & John N Friedman & Michael Stepner & Opportunity Insights Team & Camille Baker & Harvey Barnhard & Matt Bell & Gregory Bruich & Tina Chelidze & Lucas Chu & Westley Cineus & Sebi Devlin-Fol, 2024. "The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 829-889.
    4. Johansson, Per & Palme, Marten, 2005. "Moral hazard and sickness insurance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1879-1890, September.
    5. repec:aei:rpaper:1008570714 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Green, Daniel & Loualiche, Erik, 2021. "State and local government employment in the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    7. Haiqiang Chen & Wenlan Qian & Qiang Wen, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumption: Learning from High-Frequency Transaction Data," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 307-311, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Waldenström, Daniel & Angelov, Nikolay, 2021. "COVID-19 and Income Inequality: Evidence from Monthly Population Registers," Working Paper Series 1396, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    2. Eliason, Marcus, 2021. "The unequal(?) burden of unemployment in Sweden during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2021:14, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    3. Dorn, Florian & Lange, Berit & Braml, Martin & Gstrein, David & Nyirenda, John L.Z. & Vanella, Patrizio & Winter, Joachim & Fuest, Clemens & Krause, Gérard, 2023. "The challenge of estimating the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions – Toward an integrated economic and epidemiological approach," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Hoy,Christopher Alexander & Simbeye,Laban & Malik,Muhammad Abdullah Ali & Koivisto,Aliisa & Maboshe,Mashekwa, 2022. "How Have Formal Firms Recovered from the Pandemic ? Insights from Survey and TaxAdministrative Data in Zambia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10139, The World Bank.
    5. Nikolay Angelov & Daniel Waldenström, 2023. "COVID-19 and income inequality: evidence from monthly population registers," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 21(2), pages 351-379, June.
    6. Mantas Lukauskas & Vaida Pilinkienė & Jurgita Bruneckienė & Alina Stundžienė & Andrius Grybauskas & Tomas Ruzgas, 2022. "Economic Activity Forecasting Based on the Sentiment Analysis of News," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-22, September.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Coşkun Akdeniz & Ali İlhan, 2024. "Time-varying effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets and economic activity: evidence from the US and Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 529-558, May.
    8. Alina Stundziene & Vaida Pilinkiene & Jurgita Bruneckiene & Andrius Grybauskas & Mantas Lukauskas, 2023. "Nowcasting Economic Activity Using Electricity Market Data: The Case of Lithuania," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19 impact; VAT; excise taxes; sick pay;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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