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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumption: Learning from High-Frequency Transaction Data

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  • Haiqiang Chen
  • Wenlan Qian
  • Qiang Wen

Abstract

We use daily transaction data in 214 cities to study the impact of COVID-19 on consumption after China's outbreak in late January 2020. Based on difference-in-difference estimation, daily offline consumption—via bank card and mobile Quick Response code transactions—fell by 32 percent, or 18.57 million renminbi (RMB) per city, during the 12-week period. The effect is prevalent across cities and is more pronounced in the dining-and-entertainment and travel categories. We infer that China's offline consumption decreased by over 1.22 trillion RMB, or 1.2 percent of China's 2019 GDP, in the 3-month postoutbreak period.

Suggested Citation

  • Haiqiang Chen & Wenlan Qian & Qiang Wen, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumption: Learning from High-Frequency Transaction Data," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 307-311, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:111:y:2021:p:307-11
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20211003
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P36 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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