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The Role of Short-Time Work and Discretionary Policy Measures in Mitigating the Effects of the Covid-19 Crisis in Germany

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  • Michael Christl
  • Silvia De Poli
  • Tine Hufkens
  • Andreas Peichl
  • Mattia Ricci

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on German household income using a micro-level approach. We combine a microsimulation model with labour market transition techniques to simulate the COVID-19 shock on the German labour market. We find the consequences of the labour market shock to be highly regressive with a strong impact on the poorest households. However, this effect is nearly entirely offset by automatic stabilisers and discretionary policy measures. We explore the cushioning effect of these policies in detail, showing that short-time working schemes and especially the one-off payments for children are effective in cushioning the income loss of the poor.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Christl & Silvia De Poli & Tine Hufkens & Andreas Peichl & Mattia Ricci, 2021. "The Role of Short-Time Work and Discretionary Policy Measures in Mitigating the Effects of the Covid-19 Crisis in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 9072, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9072
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    20. Olga Cantó & Francesco Figari & Carlo V. Fiorio & Sarah Kuypers & Sarah Marchal & Marina Romaguera‐de‐la‐Cruz & Iva V. Tasseva & Gerlinde Verbist, 2022. "Welfare Resilience at the Onset of COVID‐19 Pandemic in a Selection of European Countries: Impact on Public Finance and Household Incomes," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(2), pages 293-322, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Herzog-Stein, Alexander & Nüß, Patrick & Peede, Lennert & Stein, Ulrike, 2022. "Germany and the United States in coronavirus distress: internal versus external labour market flexibility," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 56, pages 1-11.
    3. Tito Boeri & Pierre Cahuc, 2022. "Labor Market Insurance Policies in the XXI Century," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03878719, HAL.
    4. Christoph Görtz & Danny McGowan & Mallory Yeromonahos, 2023. "Furlough and Household Financial Distress during the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(6), pages 1157-1184, December.
    5. Adermon, Adrian & Laun, Lisa & Lind, Patrik & Olsson, Martin & Sauermann, Jan & Sjögren , Anna, 2022. "Earnings losses and the role of the welfare state during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 2022:20, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    6. Michael Christl & Silvia De Poli & Dénes Kucsera & Hanno Lorenz, 2022. "COVID-19 and (gender) inequality in income: the impact of discretionary policy measures in Austria," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Julian Teichgräber & Simon Žužek & Jannik Hensel, 2022. "Optimal short-time work: screening for jobs at risk," ECON - Working Papers 402, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    8. Jesse Lastunen & Pia Rattenhuber & Kwabena Adu-Ababio & Katrin Gasior & Xavier Jara & Maria Jouste & David McLennan & Enrico Nichelatti & Rodrigo Oliveira & Jukka Pirttilä & Matteo Richiardi & Gemma W, 2021. "The mitigating role of tax and benefit rescue packages for poverty and inequality in Africa amid the COVID-19 pandemic," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-148, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; EUROMOD; microsimulation; STW; automatic stabilisers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies

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