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Gibrat's Law for Cities: Evidence from World War I Casualties

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  • Antonio Ciccone

Abstract

According to Gibrat’s law for cities, population shocks have permanent effects on city size. I examine this implication by analysing the persistence of observed population shocks: German military casualties in WWI by municipality of birth. I find a strong negative effect of military casualties on the male population of municipalities just after WWI. This effect persists to 1933 and, outside of the most agricultural municipalities, beyond. The effect on female population and the number of households is similar to the effect on male population by 1950, when women in the generation that fought WWI started reaching their life expectancy.

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  • Antonio Ciccone, 2021. "Gibrat's Law for Cities: Evidence from World War I Casualties," CESifo Working Paper Series 9006, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9006
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    Cited by:

    1. Edward L. Glaeser, 2021. "Urban Resilience," NBER Working Papers 29261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Marcos Sanso-Navarro & Guillermo Peña, 2023. "Long-run effects of floods at municipality level in Spain," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 29, Stata Users Group.
    3. Edward L Glaeser, 2022. "Urban resilience," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 59(1), pages 3-35, January.
    4. Rafael González‐Val & Javier Silvestre, 2023. "War and city size: The asymmetric effects of the Spanish Civil War," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 898-921, September.

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