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ABC: An Agent Based Exploration of the Macroeconomic Effects of Covid-19

Author

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  • Domenico Delli Gatti
  • Severin Reissl

Abstract

We employ a new macro-epidemiological agent based model to evaluate the “lives vs livelihoods” trade-off brought to the fore by Covid-19. The disease spreads across the networks of agents’ social and economic contacts and feeds back on the economic dimension of the model through various channels such as employment and consumption demand. We show that under a lockdown scenario the model is able to closely reproduce the epidemiological dynamics of the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic in Lombardy. We then explore the efficacy of the fiscal response to Covid-19 which may take different routes: income support, liquidity provision, credit guarantees. In an agent based setting we gain additional insights on the way in which fiscal measures impact not only on GDP but also on the defaults of firms and the allocation of inputs. We find that liquidity support for firms, a short-time working scheme with compensation for workers, and direct transfer payments to households are effective policy tools to alleviate the economic impact of the epidemic and the lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Delli Gatti & Severin Reissl, 2020. "ABC: An Agent Based Exploration of the Macroeconomic Effects of Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 8763, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8763
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8763.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Bodenstein & Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Guerrieri, 2022. "Social distancing and supply disruptions in a pandemic," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 681-721, May.
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    3. Fève, Patrick & Assenza, Tiziana & Collard, Fabrice & Dupaigne, Martial & Hellwig, Christian & Kankanamge, Sumudu & Werquin, Nicolas, 2020. "The Hammer and the Dance: Equilibrium and Optimal Policy during a Pandemic Crisis," TSE Working Papers 20-1099, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
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    6. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    7. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    8. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivàn Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2020. "A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown," CeMMAP working papers CWP14/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. Assenza, Tiziana & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Grazzini, Jakob, 2015. "Emergent dynamics of a macroeconomic agent based model with capital and credit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 5-28.
    11. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 0. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    12. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Grazzini, Jakob, 2020. "Rising to the challenge: Bayesian estimation and forecasting techniques for macroeconomic Agent Based Models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 875-902.
    13. T Assenza & P Colzani & D Delli Gatti & J Grazzini, 2018. "Does fiscal policy matter? Tax, transfer, and spend in a macro ABM with capital and credit," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1069-1090.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Mellacher, 2022. "Endogenous viral mutations, evolutionary selection, and containment policy design," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 801-825, July.
    2. Davids, Allan & du Rand, Gideon & Georg, Co-Pierre & Koziol, Tina & Schasfoort, Joeri, 2023. "Social learning in a network model of Covid-19," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 271-304.
    3. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2022. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach [Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 358-409.
    4. Proaño, Christian R. & Kukacka, Jiri & Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2024. "Belief-driven dynamics in a behavioral SEIRD macroeconomic model with sceptics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 312-333.
    5. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "Assessing the economic effects of lockdowns in Italy: a computational Input-Output approach," LEM Papers Series 2021/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Domenico Delli Gatti & Severin Reissl & Enrico Turco, 2023. "V for vaccines and variants," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 991-1046, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    agent-based models; epidemic; Covid; fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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