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Age, Intentions and the Implicit Role of Out-Selection Factors of International Migration

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  • Michel Beine

Abstract

In this paper, I propose to isolate the role of age as a self-selection factor of international migration. The role of age is estimated on intended emigration rather than on observed outcomes of migration, using individual measures of intended emigration drawn from a large-scale survey conducted by Gallup. I find evidence that age has a monotonic negative effect on desired emigration for the working-age population. The estimations point to a very robust effect, suggesting that an additional year of age decreases the probability of intended emigration by about 0.5%. This effect is steady over different periods of time and for most types of countries of origin. The results contrast with previous evidence obtained on observed outcomes of migration, suggesting that out-selection factors interact with age and shape the demographic profile of migrants.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Beine, 2020. "Age, Intentions and the Implicit Role of Out-Selection Factors of International Migration," CESifo Working Paper Series 8688, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8688
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simone Bertoli & Ilse Ruyssen, 2018. "Networks and migrants’ intended destination," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 705-728.
    2. Djajic, Slobodan & Kirdar, Murat G. & Vinogradova, Alexandra, 2016. "Source-country earnings and emigration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 46-67.
    3. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1970. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Harry W. Richardson (ed.), Regional Economics, chapter 9, pages 115-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Michael A. Clemens & Mariapia Mendola, 2020. "Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson’s Paradox," Working Papers 539, Center for Global Development.
    5. David J. McKenzie, 2008. "A Profile of the World's Young Developing Country International Migrants," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(1), pages 115-135, March.
    6. Cristina Cattaneo, 2007. "The Self-Selection in the Migration Process: What Can We Learn?," LIUC Papers in Economics 199, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    7. World Bank, 2018. "Moving for Prosperity," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 29806.
    8. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 4, pages 69-91, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Frédéric Docquier & Giovanni Peri & Ilse Ruyssen, 2016. "The Cross-country Determinants of Potential and Actual Migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 12, pages 361-423, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Djajić, Slobodan & Vinogradova, Alexandra, 2014. "Liquidity-constrained migrants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 210-224.
    11. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michel Beine & Michel Bierlaire & Frédéric Docquier, 2021. "New York, Abu Dhabi, London or Stay at Home? Using a Cross-Nested Logit Model to Identify Complex Substitution Patterns in Migration," LISER Working Paper Series 2021-01, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    2. Michel Beine & Michel Bierlaire & Evangelos Paschalidis & Silvia Varotto & Andreas B. Vortisch, 2024. "The Impact of a Possible Trump Reelection on Mexican Immigration Pressures in Alternative Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 11195, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    age; international migration; intended emigration; logit; large-scale survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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