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Endogenous Emission Caps Always Induce a Green Paradox

Author

Listed:
  • Reyer Gerlagh
  • Roweno J.R.K. Heijmans
  • Knut Einar Rosendahl

Abstract

For any emission trading system (ETS) with quantity-based endogenous supply of allowances, there exists a negative demand shock, e.g. induced by abatement policy, that increases aggregate supply and thus cumulative emissions. We prove this green paradox for a general model and then apply it to the details of EU ETS. In 2018, new rules for a Market Stability Reserve (MSR) were agreed on and implemented. We show that abatement policies announced in early periods but realized in the future, are inverted by the new rules and increase cumulative emissions. We provide quantitative evidence of our result for a model disciplined on the price rise in the EU ETS that followed the introduction of the MSR.

Suggested Citation

  • Reyer Gerlagh & Roweno J.R.K. Heijmans & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2019. "Endogenous Emission Caps Always Induce a Green Paradox," CESifo Working Paper Series 7862, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7862
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Corjan Brink & Herman R.J. Vollebergh, 2020. "What Can We Learn from EU ETS?," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(01), pages 23-29, April.
    2. Hajjaji, Mohamed & Cristofari, Christian, 2024. "Economic and technical evaluation of on-site electrolysis solar hydrogen refueling station in Corsica: A case study of Ajaccio," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Hintermayer, Martin, 2020. "A Carbon Price Floor in the Reformed EU ETS: Design Matters!," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224576, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Konuralp Pamukcu, 2020. "Implementation of Sustainable Development Goals Through the Equimarginal Principle and Circular Economy," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 70(2), pages 267-286, December.
    5. Tietjen, Oliver & Lessmann, Kai & Pahle, Michael, 2021. "Hedging and temporal permit issuances in cap-and-trade programs: The Market Stability Reserve under risk aversion," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Quemin, Simon & Trotignon, Raphaël, 2021. "Emissions trading with rolling horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Osorio, Sebastian & Tietjen, Oliver & Pahle, Michael & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2021. "Reviewing the Market Stability Reserve in light of more ambitious EU ETS emission targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    8. Böhringer, Christoph & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2022. "Europe beyond coal – An economic and climate impact assessment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    9. Hintermayer, Martin, 2020. "A Carbon Price Floor in the Reformed EU ETS: Design matters!," EWI Working Papers 2020-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    10. Hintermayer, Martin, 2020. "A carbon price floor in the reformed EU ETS: Design matters!," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    11. Jan Streeck & Quirin Dammerer & Dominik Wiedenhofer & Fridolin Krausmann, 2021. "The role of socio‐economic material stocks for natural resource use in the United States of America from 1870 to 2100," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1486-1502, December.
    12. Pavel Tcvetkov, 2021. "Climate Policy Imbalance in the Energy Sector: Time to Focus on the Value of CO 2 Utilization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-22, January.
    13. Herweg, Fabian, 2020. "Overlapping efforts in the EU Emissions Trading System," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    14. Simon Quemin, 2020. "Using Supply-Side Policies to Raise Ambition: The Case of the EU ETS and the 2021 Review," Working Papers 2002, Chaire Economie du climat.
    15. Jarke-Neuert, Johannes & Perino, Grischa, 2020. "Energy efficiency promotion backfires under cap-and-trade," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Schmidt, Lukas, 2020. "Puncturing the Waterbed or the New Green Paradox? The Effectiveness of Overlapping Policies in the EU ETS under Perfect Foresight and Myopia," EWI Working Papers 2020-7, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    17. Cai, Zeen & Li, Chuanjia & Mo, Dong & Xu, Shuyang & Chen, Xiqun (Michael) & Lee, Der-Horng, 2024. "Optimizing consolidated shared charging and electric ride-sourcing services," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    18. Glenn A. Aguilar‐Hernandez & Sebastiaan Deetman & Stefano Merciai & João F. D. Rodrigues & Arnold Tukker, 2021. "Global distribution of material inflows to in‐use stocks in 2011 and its implications for a circularity transition," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1447-1461, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emissions trading; green paradox; EU ETS; environmental policy; dynamic modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D59 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Other
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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