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Compliance effects of risk-based tax audits

Author

Listed:
  • Knut Løyland
  • Oddbjørn Raaum
  • Gaute Torsvik
  • Arnstein Øvrum

Abstract

Tax administrations use machine learning to predict risk scores as a basis for selecting individual taxpayers for audit. Audits detect noncompliance immediately, but may also alter future filing behavior. This analysis is the first to estimate compliance effects of audits among high-risk wage earners. We exploit a sharp audit assignment discontinuity in Norway based on individual tax payers risk score. Additional data from a random audit allow us to estimate how the audit effect vary across the risk score distribution. We show that the current risk score audit threshold is set far above the one that maximizes net public revenue.

Suggested Citation

  • Knut Løyland & Oddbjørn Raaum & Gaute Torsvik & Arnstein Øvrum, 2019. "Compliance effects of risk-based tax audits," CESifo Working Paper Series 7616, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7616
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christiansen, Tobias Gabel, 2024. "Dynamic effects of tax audits and the role of intentions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    2. Gabriele Mazzolini & Laura Pagani & Alessandro Santoro, 2022. "The deterrence effect of real-world operational tax audits on self-employed taxpayers: evidence from Italy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(4), pages 1014-1046, August.
    3. Bjørkheim, Julie Brun & Nygård, Odd E., 2024. "Gender Differences in Tax Evasion: Evidence from Norwegian Administrative Data," Discussion Papers 2024/8, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    4. Andreea-Florentina Crăciun & Raluca-Ioana Racataian & Nicoleta-Claudia Moldovan, 2022. "Radiography of the Tax Inspection Activity in the Context of Contemporary Challenges," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 854-862, September.
    5. Kasper, Matthias & Rablen, Matthew D., 2023. "Tax compliance after an audit: Higher or lower?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 157-171.
    6. Eberhartinger, Eva & Safaei, Reyhaneh & Sureth, Caren & Wu, Yuchen, 2021. "Are risk-based tax audit stretegies rewarded? An analysis of corporate tax avoidance," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 267, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tax audits; tax revenue; tax reporting decisions; income tax; machine learning; risk; profiling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H83 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Public Administration

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