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On the Frequency of Price Overreactions

Author

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Alex Plastun

Abstract

This paper explores the frequency of price overreactions in the US stock market by focusing on the Dow Jones Industrial Index over the period 1990-2017. It uses two different methods (static and dynamic) to detect overreactions and then carries out various statistical tests (both parametric and non-parametric) including correlation analysis, augmented Dickey–Fuller tests (ADF), Granger causality tests, and regression analysis with dummy variables. The following hypotheses are tested: whether or not the frequency of overreactions varies over time (H1), is informative about crises (H2) and/or price movements (H3), and exhibits seasonality (H4). The null cannot be rejected except for H4, i.e. no seasonality is found. On the whole it appears that the frequency of overreactions can provide useful information about market developments and for designing trading strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2018. "On the Frequency of Price Overreactions," CESifo Working Paper Series 7011, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7011
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7011.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun & Viktor Oliinyk, 2019. "Bitcoin fluctuations and the frequency of price overreactions," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 33(2), pages 109-131, June.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kang, Woo-Young & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Cyber-attacks, spillovers and contagion in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock markets; anomalies; overreactions; abnormal returns; VIX; frequency of overreactions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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