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How Large is the Corporate Tax Base Erosion and Profit Shifting? A General Equlibrium Approach

Author

Listed:
  • María T. Alvarez-Martínez
  • Salvador Barrios
  • Diego d'Andria
  • Maria Gesualdo
  • Gaëtan Nicodème
  • Jonathan Pycroft

Abstract

This paper estimates the size and macroeconomic effects of base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) using a computable general equilibrium model designed for corporate taxation and multinationals. Our central estimate of the impact of BEPS on corporate tax losses for the EU amounts to €36 billion annually or 7.7% of total corporate tax revenues. The USA and Japan also appear to loose tax revenues respectively of €101 and €24 billion per year or 10.7% of corporate tax revenues in both cases. These estimates are consistent with gaps in bilateral multinationals´ activities reported by creditor and debtor countries using official statistics for the EU. Our results suggest that by increasing the cost of capital, eliminating profit shifting would slightly reduce investment and GDP. It would however raise corporate tax revenues thanks to enhanced domestic production. This in turn could reduce other taxes and increase welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • María T. Alvarez-Martínez & Salvador Barrios & Diego d'Andria & Maria Gesualdo & Gaëtan Nicodème & Jonathan Pycroft, 2018. "How Large is the Corporate Tax Base Erosion and Profit Shifting? A General Equlibrium Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 6870, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6870
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Barrios, Salvador & d'Andria, Diego & Gesualdo, Maria, 2020. "Reducing tax compliance costs through corporate tax base harmonization in the European Union," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    3. Alessio Anzuini & Elena Pisano & Luca Rossi & Alessandra Sanelli & Enrico Tosti & Ernesto Zangari, 2023. "Clever planning or unfair play? Exploring the economic and statistical impacts of tax avoidance by multinationals," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 799, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. European Commission, 2018. "Tax Policies in the European Union: 2018 Survey," Taxation Survey 2018, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    5. European Commission, 2019. "Tax Policies in the European Union: 2020 Survey," Taxation Survey 2020, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    6. Thomas Tørsløv & Ludvig Wier & Gabriel Zucman, 2023. "Externalities in International Tax Enforcement: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 497-525, May.
    7. Nabavi Pardis & Nordström Martin, 2023. "The Impact Assessment of Implementing a Global Minimum Tax for MNEs in Sweden," Nordic Tax Journal, Sciendo, vol. 2023(1), pages 111-123, December.
    8. Tiago Cardao-Pito, 2023. "How to identify norms, laws, and regulations that facilitate illicit financial flows and related financial crimes," Journal of Money Laundering Control, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(4), pages 674-686, August.
    9. Patrice Christmann, 2021. "Mineral Resource Governance in the 21st Century and a sustainable European Union," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(2), pages 187-208, July.
    10. Vincent Vicard, 2019. "The Exorbitant Privilege of High Tax Countries," Working Papers 2019-06, CEPII research center.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    BEPS; corporate taxation; profit shifting; tax avoidance; CGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

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