A macroeconomic perspective on taxing multinational enterprises

We develop a general-equilibrium model to study the macroeconomic consequences of international profit shifting by multinational enterprises (MNEs). In our model, MNEs shift profits by exploiting intangible capital transfer pricing rules, which makes intangible investment more attractive and leads to higher output at home and abroad. We use the model to quantify the effects of two reforms proposed by the OECD: (i) reallocating MNEs’ profit tax bases to the countries where they sell their products; and (ii) a minimum global corporate income tax. Both reforms would reduce profit shifting substantially, but (i) would reduce global output whereas (ii) would have little macroeconomic impact. The reforms’ distributional implications would also be important. In high-tax countries, tax revenues would increase more than output declines, raising gross national income and enabling redistribution that could offset lower wages. In contrast, output and tax revenues would both drop in low-tax countries, significantly reducing national income.