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Dodging Trade Sanctions? Evidence from Military Goods

Author

Listed:
  • Lisa Scheckenhofer
  • Feodora A. Teti
  • Joschka Wanner
  • Feodora Teti
  • Feodora Teti

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to unprecedented sanctions aimed at denying Russia access to critical technologies essential for sustaining its war efforts. This paper examines whether trade sanctions targeting military goods were undermined by evasion, specifically through transshipment through Russia-friendly countries. We find that Russia-friendly countries are 20 pp more likely to export military goods to Russia relative to neutral countries after the war began, while exports of military goods from Western allies to these countries also increased. Our results show that weak enforcement significantly undermines the effectiveness of sanctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisa Scheckenhofer & Feodora A. Teti & Joschka Wanner & Feodora Teti & Feodora Teti, 2025. "Dodging Trade Sanctions? Evidence from Military Goods," CESifo Working Paper Series 11743, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11743
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Raymond Fisman & Peter Moustakerski & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "Outsourcing Tariff Evasion: A New Explanation for Entrepôt Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 587-592, August.
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    5. Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Tax Rates and Tax Evasion: Evidence from "Missing Imports" in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 471-500, April.
    6. Vasily Astrov & Feodora Teti & Lisa Scheckenhofer & Camille Semelet, 2024. "Monitoring the Impact of Sanctions on the Russian Economy Vol. 3," EconPol Policy Reports 51, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade sanctions; sanction evasion; military goods trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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