IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_11084.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

AI, Automation and Taxation

Author

Listed:
  • Spencer Bastani
  • Daniel Waldenström

Abstract

This paper examines the implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and automation for the taxation of labor and capital in advanced economies. It synthesizes empirical evidence on worker displacement, productivity, and income inequality, as well as theoretical frameworks for optimal taxation. Implications for tax policy are discussed, focusing on the level of capital taxes and the progressivity of labor taxes. While there may be a need to adjust the level of capital taxes and the structure of labor income taxation, there are potential drawbacks of overly progressive taxation and universal basic income schemes that could undermine work incentives, economic growth, and long-term household welfare. Some of the challenges posed by AI and automation may also be better addressed through regulatory measures rather than tax policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Spencer Bastani & Daniel Waldenström, 2024. "AI, Automation and Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 11084, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11084
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11084.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Brynjolfsson & Danielle Li & Lindsey R. Raymond, 2023. "Generative AI at Work," NBER Working Papers 31161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ezra Oberfield & Gene M. Grossman, 2022. "The Elusive Explanation for the Declining Labor Share," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 93-124, August.
    3. Bas Jacobs & A. Bovenberg, 2010. "Human capital and optimal positive taxation of capital income," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(5), pages 451-478, October.
    4. Casey Rothschild & Florian Scheuer, 2013. "Redistributive Taxation in the Roy Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 623-668.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & Jonathon Hazell & Pascual Restrepo, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(S1), pages 293-340.
    6. Andreas Fagereng & Luigi Guiso & Davide Malacrino & Luigi Pistaferri, 2020. "Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 115-170, January.
    7. Duch-Brown, Néstor & Gomez-Herrera, Estrella & Mueller-Langer, Frank & Tolan, Songül, 2022. "Market power and artificial intelligence work on online labour markets," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(3).
    8. Rothschild, Casey & Scheuer, Florian, 2014. "A theory of income taxation under multidimensional skill heterogeneity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58026, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Shanmuganathan, Manchuna, 2020. "Behavioural finance in an era of artificial intelligence: Longitudinal case study of robo-advisors in investment decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    11. Naito, Hisahiro, 1999. "Re-examination of uniform commodity taxes under a non-linear income tax system and its implication for production efficiency," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 165-188, February.
    12. Anastassia Fedyk & James Hodson & Natalya Khimich & Tatiana Fedyk, 2022. "Is artificial intelligence improving the audit process?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 938-985, September.
    13. Dominik Sachs & Aleh Tsyvinski & Nicolas Werquin, 2020. "Nonlinear Tax Incidence and Optimal Taxation in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 469-493, March.
    14. Sachs, Dominik & Tsyvinski, Aleh & Werquin, Nicolas, 2020. "Nonlinear Tax Incidence And Optimal Taxation In General Equilibrium," Munich Reprints in Economics 84782, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    15. Jukka Pirttilä & Håkan Selin, 2011. "Income Shifting within a Dual Income Tax System: Evidence from the Finnish Tax Reform of 1993," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(1), pages 120-144, March.
    16. Arnaud Costinot & Iván Werning, 2023. "Robots, Trade, and Luddism: A Sufficient Statistic Approach to Optimal Technology Regulation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2261-2291.
    17. Dingquan Miao, 2022. "Optimal Labor Income Taxation - The Role of the Skill Distribution," LIS Working papers 823, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    18. Judd, Kenneth L., 1985. "Redistributive taxation in a simple perfect foresight model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 59-83, October.
    19. Atkinson, A. B. & Stiglitz, J. E., 1976. "The design of tax structure: Direct versus indirect taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 55-75.
    20. Chamley, Christophe, 1986. "Optimal Taxation of Capital Income in General Equilibrium with Infinite Lives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 607-622, May.
    21. Diamond, Peter A & Mirrlees, James A, 1971. "Optimal Taxation and Public Production II: Tax Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 261-278, June.
    22. Diamond, Peter A & Mirrlees, James A, 1971. "Optimal Taxation and Public Production: I--Production Efficiency," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 8-27, March.
    23. Aaberge, Rolf & Eika, Lasse & Langørgen, Audun & Mogstad, Magne, 2019. "Local governments, in-kind transfers, and economic inequality," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    24. Joel Mokyr & Chris Vickers & Nicolas L. Ziebarth, 2015. "The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 31-50, Summer.
    25. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1982. "Self-selection and Pareto efficient taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 213-240, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Minniti & Klaus Prettner & Francesco Venturini, 2024. "Unslicing the pie: AI innovation and the labor share in European regions," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp369, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bastani, Spencer & Waldenström, Daniel, 2024. "AI, Automation and Taxation," IZA Policy Papers 212, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Spencer Bastani & Daniel Waldenström, 2020. "How Should Capital Be Taxed?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 812-846, September.
    3. Waldenstrom, Daniel & Bastani, Spencer, 2018. "How Should Capital Be Taxed? Theory and Evidence from Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 12880, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Slavík, Ctirad & Yazici, Hakki, 2014. "Machines, buildings, and optimal dynamic taxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 47-61.
    5. Spencer Bastani & Daniel Waldenström, 2018. "How should capital be taxed? The Swedish experience," Working Papers hal-02878153, HAL.
    6. Alexander Tarasov & Robertas Zubrickas, 2021. "Optimal Income Taxation under Monopolistic Competition," CESifo Working Paper Series 9309, CESifo.
    7. Alexander Tarasov & Robertas Zubrickas, 2023. "Optimal income taxation under monopolistic competition," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 76(2), pages 495-523, August.
    8. Cui, Xiaoyong & Gong, Liutang & Li, Wenjian, 2021. "Supply-side optimal capital taxation with endogenous wage inequality," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    9. B. Douglas Bernheim, 2010. "Emmanuel Saez: 2009 John Bates Clark Medalist," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(3), pages 183-206, Summer.
    10. Florian Scheuer & Joel Slemrod, 2020. "Taxation and the Superrich," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 189-211, August.
    11. Jacquet, Laurence & Lehmann, Etienne, 2021. "How to Tax Different Incomes?," IZA Discussion Papers 14739, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2018. "Pareto efficient taxation and expenditures: Pre- and re-distribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 101-119.
    13. Carlier, Guillaume & Dupuis, Xavier & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Thanassoulis, John, 2024. "A general solution to the quasi linear screening problem," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    14. Bas Jacobs & A. Bovenberg, 2010. "Human capital and optimal positive taxation of capital income," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(5), pages 451-478, October.
    15. Renato Gomes & Jean-Marie Lozachmeur & Alessandro Pavan, 2018. "Differential Taxation and Occupational Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 511-557.
    16. Jan Eeckhout & Chunyang Fu & Wenjian Li & Xi Weng, 2021. "Optimal taxation and market power," Economics Working Papers 1777, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    17. Mendolicchio, Concetta & Pietra, Tito, 2024. "On the efficiency properties of the Roy’s model under uncertainty and market incompleteness," MPRA Paper 121150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Nakatani, Ryota, 2022. "Optimal fiscal policy in the automated economy," MPRA Paper 115003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew Weinzierl & Danny Yagan, 2009. "Optimal Taxation in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 147-174, Fall.
    20. Boadway,Robin & Cuff,Katherine, 2022. "Tax Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108949453, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    AI; automation; inequality; labor share; optimal taxation; tax progressivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11084. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.