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The Resolution of Uncertainty in the Value and Probability Domains

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Listed:
  • Eungik Lee
  • Kathleen Ngangoue
  • Andrew Schotter
  • Maryse Kathleen Ngangoue

Abstract

We compare preferences for temporal resolution when uncertainty is resolved over a probability rather than a value. In various frameworks–e.g., Kreps and Porteus (1978)–, preferences over gradual versus one-shot resolution do not depend on whether values or probabilities define the main object of uncertainty. In our experiment, however, most subjects resolved uncertain values gradually but uncertain probabilities all at once–both in the gain and loss frames. This systematic discrepancy motivates an explanation for it that we call “process utility”, which highlights the importance of information processing when deducing revealed preferences for temporal resolution from choice data.

Suggested Citation

  • Eungik Lee & Kathleen Ngangoue & Andrew Schotter & Maryse Kathleen Ngangoue, 2024. "The Resolution of Uncertainty in the Value and Probability Domains," CESifo Working Paper Series 10898, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10898
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Uri Gneezy & Jan Potters, 1997. "An Experiment on Risk Taking and Evaluation Periods," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 631-645.
    2. Chew, Soo Hong & Ho, Joanna L, 1994. "Hope: An Empirical Study of Attitude toward the Timing of Uncertainty Resolution," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 267-288, May.
    3. Florian Zimmermann, 2015. "Clumped or Piecewise? Evidence on Preferences for Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(4), pages 740-753, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    resolution of uncertainty; probability; gradual resolution; one-shot resolution; process utility; non-instrumental information; Kreps-Porteus;
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