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Bubbling and Crashing Exchange Rates

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  • Marianna Grimaldi
  • Paul De Grauwe

Abstract

We develop a simple model of the foreign exchange market in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one.This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble one. In a stochastic environment the model generates a complex dynamics in which bubbles and crashes occur at unpredictable moments. We also analyse the empirical relevance of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianna Grimaldi & Paul De Grauwe, 2003. "Bubbling and Crashing Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 1045, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1045
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Kateryna Onishchenko, 2012. "Can a pure real business cycle model explain the real exchange rate: the case of Ukraine," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 111-135.
    3. Amilon, Henrik, 2008. "Estimation of an adaptive stock market model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 342-362, March.
    4. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2015. "Testing of a market fraction model and power-law behaviour in the DAX 30," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-17.

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