IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cep/sercdp/0075.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

If We Build, Will They Pay? Predicting Property Price Effects of Transport Innovations

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Ahlfeldt

Abstract

In this study I develop a partial equilibrium approach for the prediction of property price effects of transport network extensions. It combines a gravity-type labor market accessibility indicator with a transport decision model that takes into account the urban rail network architecture, allows for mode switching and relaxes the assumption that stations represent perfect substitutes. The model is calibrated to the Greater London Area and is used to predict property price effects of the 1999 Jubilee Line and DLR extension. A considerable degree of heterogeneity is predicted both in terms of the magnitude as well as the spatial extent of price effects around new stations. A quasi-experimental property price analysis reveals that the model performs well in predicting the observed average accessibility effect. Relative transport costs associated with distinct transport modes are identified from the data by calibrating the model of observed property price adjustments.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Ahlfeldt, 2011. "If We Build, Will They Pay? Predicting Property Price Effects of Transport Innovations," SERC Discussion Papers 0075, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0075
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/sercdp0075.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Feddersen, Arne, 2010. "From Periphery to Core: Economic Adjustments to High Speed Rail," MPRA Paper 25106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Michael Lokshin, 2006. "Difference-based semiparametric estimation of partial linear regression models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(3), pages 377-383, September.
    3. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2009. "Looming stations: Valuing transport innovations in historical context," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 97-99, October.
    4. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2015. "The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2127-2189, November.
    5. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Nicolai Wendland, 2013. "How polycentric is a monocentric city? Centers, spillovers and hysteresis," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 53-83, January.
    6. McDonald, John F. & Osuji, Clifford I., 1995. "The effect of anticipated transportation improvement on residential land values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 261-278, June.
    7. Fujita, Masahisa & Ogawa, Hideaki, 1982. "Multiple equilibria and structural transition of non-monocentric urban configurations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 161-196, May.
    8. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
    9. Ghebreegziabiher Debrezion & Eric Pels & Piet Rietveld, 2007. "The Impact of Railway Stations on Residential and Commercial Property Value: A Meta-analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 161-180, August.
    10. R Cervero & T Rood & B Appleyard, 1999. "Tracking Accessibility: Employment and Housing Opportunities in the San Francisco Bay Area," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 31(7), pages 1259-1278, July.
    11. Nathaniel Baum-Snow, 2007. "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 775-805.
    12. Gabriel Ahlfeldt, 2011. "If Alonso Was Right: Modeling Accessibility And Explaining The Residential Land Gradient," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 318-338, May.
    13. Baum-Snow, Nathaniel & Kahn, Matthew E., 2000. "The effects of new public projects to expand urban rail transit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 241-263, August.
    14. Gibbons, Stephen & Machin, Stephen, 2005. "Valuing rail access using transport innovations," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 148-169, January.
    15. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2009. "Looming stations: Valuing transport innovations in historical context," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 97-99, October.
    16. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Nicolai Wendland, 2010. "How Polycentric is a Monocentric City? The Role of Agglomeration Economies," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_24, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    17. Dewees, D. N., 1976. "The effect of a subway on residential property values in Toronto," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 357-369, October.
    18. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt, 2011. "The Train has Left the Station: Do Markets Value Intracity Access to Intercity Rail Connections?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(3), pages 312-335, August.
    19. Dean H. Gatzlaff & Marc T. Smith, 1993. "The Impact of the Miami Metrorail on the Value of Residences near Station Locations," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 69(1), pages 54-66.
    20. McMillen, Daniel P., 1996. "One Hundred Fifty Years of Land Values in Chicago: A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 100-124, July.
    21. Bowes, David R. & Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 2001. "Identifying the Impacts of Rail Transit Stations on Residential Property Values," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, July.
    22. Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Wolfgang Maennig, 2009. "Arenas, Arena Architecture and the Impact on Location Desirability: The Case of `Olympic Arenas' in Prenzlauer Berg, Berlin," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 46(7), pages 1343-1362, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Le, Henry & Lim, Wee Liang & Leong, Wai Yan, 2018. "Land enhancement and intensification benefits of investing in an urban rail network," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 512-522.
    2. Stephen Gibbons & Henry G. Overman, 2012. "Mostly Pointless Spatial Econometrics?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 172-191, May.
    3. Liotta, Charlotte, 2025. "What drives inequalities in Low Emission Zones’ impacts on job accessibility?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 29-41.
    4. Kholodilin, Konstantin A & Mense, Andreas & Michelsen, Claus, 2017. "The market value of energy efficiency in buildings and the mode of tenure," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 54(14), pages 3218-3238.
    5. Huang, Zhonghua & Du, Xuejun, 2021. "How does high-speed rail affect land value? Evidence from China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    6. Wenjie Wu, 2012. "Does Public Investment Spur the Land Market?: Evidence from Transport Improvement in Beijing," SERC Discussion Papers 0116, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Tian, Chuanhao & Peng, Ying & Wen, Haizhen & Yue, Wenze & Fang, Li, 2021. "Subway boosts housing values, for whom: A quasi-experimental analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. He, Sylvia Y., 2020. "Regional impact of rail network accessibility on residential property price: Modelling spatial heterogeneous capitalisation effects in Hong Kong," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 244-263.
    9. Kenzo Asahi, 2014. "The Impact of Better School Accessibility on Student outcomes," SERC Discussion Papers 0156, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Mitra, Suman K. & Saphores, Jean-Daniel M., 2016. "The value of transportation accessibility in a least developed country city – The case of Rajshahi City, Bangladesh," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 184-200.
    11. Pogonyi, Csaba G. & Graham, Daniel J. & Carbo, Jose M., 2021. "Metros, agglomeration and displacement. Evidence from London," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Seungwoo Chin & Matthew E. Kahn & Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2020. "Estimating the Gains from New Rail Transit Investment: A Machine Learning Tree Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 886-914, September.
    13. Gabriel M. Ahfeldt, 2013. "Urbanity," SERC Discussion Papers 0136, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Higgins, Christopher D. & Arku, Robert N. & Farber, Steven & Miller, Eric J., 2024. "Modelling changes in accessibility and property values associated with the King Street Transit Priority Corridor project in Toronto," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    15. E. V. Leontev & I. A. Mayburov, 2021. "Realization of the Benefits from the Functioning of Municipal Electric Transport in the Taxation of the Property of Individuals," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 20(3), pages 406-427.
    16. Shutian Zhou & Guofang Zhai & Yijun Shi, 2018. "What Drives the Rise of Metro Developments in China? Evidence from Nantong," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    17. Lee, Jae Kwang, 2021. "Transport infrastructure investment, accessibility change and firm productivity: Evidence from the Seoul region," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    18. Mathilde Poulhes, 2017. "From Latin Quarter to Montmartre Investigating Parisian Real-Estate Prices," Working Papers 2017-13, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    19. Gaston Tchang, 2016. "The impact of highway proximity on distribution centres’ rents," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(13), pages 2834-2848, October.
    20. Rosa Sanchis-Guarner, 2012. "Driving Up Wages: The Effects of Road Construction in Great Britain," SERC Discussion Papers 0120, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    21. Konstantin Klemmer & Tobias Brandt & Stephen Jarvis, 2018. "Isolating the effect of cycling on local business environments in London," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-31, December.
    22. Shutian Zhou & Guofang Zhai & Yuwen Lu & Yijun Shi, 2021. "The development of urban mega-projects in China: A case study of Nantong’s metro project," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(4), pages 759-774, May.
    23. Erman,Alvina Elisabeth & Dallmann,Ingrid, 2022. "Putting a Price on Safety — A Hedonic Price Approach to Flood Risk in African Cities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10127, The World Bank.
    24. D’Arcangelo, Filippo Maria & Percoco, Marco, 2015. "Housing rent and road pricing in Milan: Evidence from a geographical discontinuity approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 108-116.
    25. Lee, Jae Kwang, 2022. "New rail transit projects and land values: The difference in the impact of rail transit investment on different land types, values and locations," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahlfeldt Gabriel M., 2011. "The Train has Left the Station: Do Markets Value Intracity Access to Intercity Rail Connections?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 312-335, August.
    2. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Nitsch, Volker & Wendland, Nicolai, 2019. "Ease vs. noise: Long-run changes in the value of transport (dis)amenities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Volker Nitsch & Nicolai Wendland, 2016. "Ease vs. Noise: On the Conflicting Effects of Transportation Infrastructure," CESifo Working Paper Series 6058, CESifo.
    4. Nicolai Wendland, 2015. "All access: a micro-level case study on the secondary center of Berlin (1871–1936)," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 375-399, March.
    5. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Volker Nitsch & Nicolai Wendland, 2019. "Ease versus noise: long-run changes in the value of transport (dis)amenities," CEP Discussion Papers dp1631, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Feddersen, Arne, 2010. "From Periphery to Core: Economic Adjustments to High Speed Rail," MPRA Paper 25106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Diao, Mi & Leonard, Delon & Sing, Tien Foo, 2017. "Spatial-difference-in-differences models for impact of new mass rapid transit line on private housing values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 64-77.
    8. Waights, Sevrin, 2018. "Does the law of one price hold for hedonic prices?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 55(15), pages 3299-3317.
    9. Rosa M. González-Marrero & Rosa M. Lorenzo-Alegría & Gustavo A. Marrero, 2011. "Los Efectos Territoriales de las Infraestructuras: La inversión en redes de alta velocidad ferroviaria," Economic Reports 05-2011, FEDEA.
    10. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Georgios Kavetsos, 2014. "Form or function?: the effect of new sports stadia on property prices in London," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 177(1), pages 169-190, January.
    11. Teulings, Coen N. & Ossokina, Ioulia V. & de Groot, Henri L.F., 2018. "Land use, worker heterogeneity and welfare benefits of public goods," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 67-82.
    12. Teulings, Coen & Ossokina, Ioulia V. & de Groot, Henri L.F., 2014. "Welfare Benefits of Agglomeration and Worker Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 8382, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Hyun, Dongwoo & Milcheva, Stanimira, 2019. "Spatio-temporal effects of an urban development announcement and its cancellation on house prices: A quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 23-36.
    14. Dubé, Jean & Rosiers, François Des & Thériault, Marius & Dib, Patricia, 2011. "Economic impact of a supply change in mass transit in urban areas: A Canadian example," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 46-62, January.
    15. Seungwoo Chin & Matthew E. Kahn & Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2020. "Estimating the Gains from New Rail Transit Investment: A Machine Learning Tree Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 886-914, September.
    16. Devaux, Nicolas & Dubé, Jean & Apparicio, Philippe, 2017. "Anticipation and post-construction impact of a metro extension on residential values: The case of Laval (Canada), 1995–2013," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 8-19.
    17. Sebastian Brandt & Wolfgang Maennig, 2012. "The impact of rail access on condominium prices in Hamburg," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(5), pages 997-1017, September.
    18. Sun, Weizeng & Zheng, Siqi & Wang, Rui, 2015. "The capitalization of subway access in home value: A repeat-rentals model with supply constraints in Beijing," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 104-115.
    19. Claudio A. Agostini & Gastón Palmucci, 2008. "Capitalización Heterogénea de un Bien Semipúblico: El Metro de Santiago," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(131), pages 105-128.
    20. Zheng, Siqi & Xu, Yangfei & Zhang, Xiaonan & Wang, Rui, 2016. "Transit development, consumer amenities and home values: Evidence from Beijing's subway neighborhoods," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 22-33.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    property prices; hedonic analysis; transport innovations; gravity equation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0075. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/serc-papers/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.