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Covid-19 and changing crime trends in England and Wales

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  • Tom Kirchmaier
  • Carmen Villa-Llera

Abstract

We document changing crime trends in England and Wales in the context of the current global pandemic. During the first lockdown that span from mid-March to mid-May 2020 there was a decrease in all crime categories except Anti-social Behaviour and Drug Offences. Since lockdown was lifted most crime categories remain at lower levels, although there are important differences across the country that correlate with economic performance. Using publicly available data, we study the spatial and temporal differences in the uptake of furlough and unemployment support schemes and their correlation to crime rates. We find that those parts of the country with traditionally higher number of claimants have higher levels of crime in some categories, including in violent crimes (controlling for month, year, and area characteristics). Areas which experienced a higher loss in employment (change) now show higher anti-social behaviour rates, much higher than the national average. We identify areas most at risk, which had high claimant rates pre-pandemic and which suffered a high increase. In these areas acquisitive crimes have decreased at a much slower rate than elsewhere. We show that the large increase in claimants was more likely to take place in LSOAs with lower educational attainment on average. The high risk areas are characterised by higher Black and Asian population, a higher proportion of lone parents and worse health.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Kirchmaier & Carmen Villa-Llera, 2020. "Covid-19 and changing crime trends in England and Wales," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-013, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepcvd:cepcovid-19-013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Díaz & Sebastian Fossati & Nicolás Trajtenberg, 2022. "Stay at home if you can: COVID‐19 stay‐at‐home guidelines and local crime," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1067-1113, December.
    2. Jesse Matheson & Brendon McConnell & James Rockey & Argyris Sakalis, 2023. "Do Remote Workers Deter Neighborhood Crime? Evidence from the Rise of Working from Home," Discussion Papers 23-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    3. Shubhangi Agrawal & Tom Kirchmaier & Carmen Villa-Llera, 2022. "Covid-19 and local crime rates in England and Wales - two years into the pandemic," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-027, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Hong, Sunmin & Jeong, Dohyo & Kim, Pyung, 2024. "Have offender demographics changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from money mules in South Korea," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Maria P. Rana, 2023. "Crime in the era of COVID‐19: Evidence from England," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(5), pages 1100-1130, November.

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    Keywords

    covid-19; crime; employment;
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