Job Flow Dynamics in the Service Sector

This paper uses the new comprehensive Longitudinal Establishment and Enterprise Microdata at CES to investigate gross and net job flows for 1990 to 1995 for all establishments in the service sector. After examining the recent shifts in the distribution of employment in non-financial services, from single unit firms to multi-unit firms, and from smaller firms to larger ones, we calculate five year gross and net job flow rates for these various types of establishments. This shows that the increasing share of service employment in large firms is not due to higher growth in larger firms. Seeking the dynamics behind the shift of employment to larger firms, we investigate how job flow rates are related to firm and establishment size, using alternative size classification methods. Gross job flow rates vary inversely with the age of establishments in services, as do net growth rates of surviving establishments, even after controlling for size. To help distinguish among the effects of age, firm size, and establishment size on gross and net job flows in services, multivariate regression analysis is used. We find that all gross job flow rates decline with increasing age of establishments when size and industry differences are controlled. Because the job destruction rate falls faster than the creation rate as age increases, net growth rates increase with age for services as a whole. Gross and net job creation also declines with increasing size of establishments, but destruction rates increase with size when controlling for age and industry differences. Firm size differences contribute little or nothing additional when we control for establishment size and age.