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Long-Term Effects of Vietnam-Era Conscription: Schooling, Experience and Earnings

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  • Joshua Angrist
  • Stacey Chen

Abstract

Instrumental variables (IV) estimates using the draft lottery show that white Vietnam-era draftees suffered substantial post-service earnings losses in the 1970s and 1980s. Angrist (1990) explains these losses as due primarily to lost labor market experience. Non-public use data from the 2000 Census allow the first longerterm follow-up for a large sample from the draft-lottery cohorts. We use these data to estimate the effects of military service on earnings, schooling, and a number of other variables. Consistent with the loss-of -experience model, IV estimates of the effects of Vietnam-era service on earnings are close to zero in 2000, when the draft-lottery cohorts were middle-aged and experience profiles relatively flat. On the other hand, draft-lottery estimates show a marked increase in schooling for Vietnam-era veterans. A variety of evidence suggests this increase reflects the impact of the Vietnam-era GI Bill more than draft-avoidance behavior. The economic return to the increased schooling generated by Vietnam-era service, estimated in a wage equation that constrains the impact of Vietnam-era military service to run solely through the experience and schooling channels, appears to be less than the OLS return. Finally, we look at measures of disability. The IV estimates point to an increase in non-workrelated disability rates and non-SSA disability income, but the fact that there is no corresponding effect on employment, hours worked, or work-related disability rates suggests health was affected little by Vietnam-era service. Allowing for excess disability among veterans raises the estimated returns to GI-Bill schooling slightly.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Angrist & Stacey Chen, 2007. "Long-Term Effects of Vietnam-Era Conscription: Schooling, Experience and Earnings," Working Papers 07-23, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:07-23
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    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/ces/wp/2007/CES-WP-07-23.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Asadul Islam Author-X-Name-Asadul, 2008. "Who Benefits From Microfinance? The Impact Evaluation Of Large Scale Programs In Bangladesh," Monash Economics Working Papers 29/08, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    2. D. Mark Anderson & Daniel I. Rees, 2015. "Deployments, Combat Exposure, and Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(1), pages 235-267.
    3. Barry T. Hirsch, 2008. "Wage Gaps Large and Small," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(4), pages 914-933, April.
    4. Daniel Eisenberg & Brian Rowe, 2008. "The Effects of Smoking in Young Adulthood on Smoking and Health Later in Life: Evidence Based on the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery," Working Papers 08-35, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Henderson, Daniel J. & Polachek, Solomon W. & Wang, Le, 2011. "Heterogeneity in schooling rates of return," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1202-1214.
    6. Rosemary Hyson & Alice Zawacki, 2008. "Health-Related Research Using Confidential U.S. Census Bureau Data," Working Papers 08-21, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    7. Douglas H. Frank, 2012. "As Luck Would Have It: The Effect of the Vietnam Draft Lottery on Long-Term Career Outcomes," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 247-274, April.

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