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Capturing asymmetry in real exchange rate with quantile autoregression

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  • Mauro S. Ferreira

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

Abstract

Quantile autoregression is used to explore asymmetries in the adjustment process of pair wise real exchange rate between the Italian lire, French franc, Deutsch mark, and the British pound. Based on the best specification for each quantile we construct predicted conditional density functions which guided us to identify two sources of asymmetry: 1) dispersion depends on the conditioned value of the real exchange rate, i.e., “conditional” heterokedasticity; 2) the probability of increases and falls also changes according to the conditioned value, i.e., there is higher probability for the real exchange rate to appreciate (depreciate) given the currency is depreciated (appreciated).We only verified strong heterokedasticity in relations among the lire, franc, and mark, which was resolved by estimating quadratic autoregressive model for some quantiles. Relations involving the pound presented stable but higher dispersion indicating larger probability of wider oscillation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauro S. Ferreira, 2007. "Capturing asymmetry in real exchange rate with quantile autoregression," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td306, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td306
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    File URL: https://www.cedeplar.ufmg.br/pesquisas/td/TD%20306.pdf
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    1. Mauro Ferreira, 2011. "Capturing asymmetry in real exchange rate with quantile autoregression," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 327-340.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; quantile autoregression; unit root; asymmetry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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