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Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility

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  • Sengupta, Jati K.

Abstract

Two types of statistical models are empirically applied to test the pattern of volatility in the exchange rate markets. One considers the autoregressive models and tests the random walk hypothesis. The other considers the conditional variance process and tests the hypothesis of chaotic dynamics. Empirical results mostly support the random walk hypothesis and also the existence of Lorenz-type chaos.

Suggested Citation

  • Sengupta, Jati K., 2002. "Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6kj5q7m5, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsbec:qt6kj5q7m5
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    1. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Branson, William H. & Halttunen, Hannu & Masson, Paul, 1979. "Exchange rates in the short run : Some further results," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 395-402, October.
    3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
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    Keywords

    exchange rate; volatility;

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