Evaluation of Incorporating Hybrid Vehicle Use of HOV Lanes

This report presents a method to investigate the operational and environmental effects of the policy of allowing qualified single-occupancy hybrid vehicles to use dedicated High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV)/carpool lanes in California.. The method combines the traditional planning method with microscopic simulation modeling. The planning method is used for demand estimation and analysis and the microscopic traffic simulation modeling method is used for accurate measures of the system. The study employs a microscopic traffic simulation model that is capable of evaluating the HOV/hybrid system and providing detailed outputs that are not available in conventional static models. The study also includes detailed emissions modeling in order to estimate accurate emissions by integrating emission models into microscopic simulation models. An important aspect of the study involves predicting future hybrid vehicle demand; hybrid demand models are developed based on consumers' automobile choice behavior analysis. This is modeled both with standard network calculations employing network assignments sensitive to time savings from HOV lane use as well as using estimates of the locations of households owning hybrid vehicles and the O-D matrices for the hybrid drivers. We use these results to modify existing models to enhance their accuracy for hybrid vehicles. The updated models are then be applied to data from the recent Caltrans 2000-2001 Statewide Household Travel Survey and the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). These survey data allow us to locate the households and trip destinations of likely hybrid vehicle owners. Results from previous studies of demand for toll lanes have established monetary values of saved travel time that can be applied to estimated time savings from network simulations to forecast incentives for purchase of hybrid vehicles. We also develop a supply-side model to estimate availability and prices of hybrid vehicles by body type and manufacturer and price in order to forecast penetration of hybrid vehicles. A total of four different scenarios were constructed. With the assumption that the total demand for all scenarios remains the same and the hybrid-HOV policy results in some solo drivers switching to hybrid vehicle drivers, these four scenarios are evaluated in terms of a set of operational performance measures and air quality measures. The key findings from this study are summarized as follows: •The initial wave of single occupant hybrid vehicles entering the HOV lanes do not have a substantial negative impact on HOV lane operations. •A hybrid demand exceeding 50 thousand statewide will have significant impact on the HOV lane operations in OC. •From the air quality perspective, a high share of hybrid vehicles will cause fewer emissions.