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Advanced Air Mobility: Demand Analysis and Market Potential of the Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi Markets

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  • Goyal, Rohit
  • Reiche, Colleen
  • Fernando, Chris
  • Cohen, Adam

Abstract

Advanced air mobility (AAM) is a broad concept enabling consumers access to on-demand air mobility, cargo and package delivery, healthcare applications, and emergency services through an integrated and connected multimodal transportation network. However, a number of challenges could impact AAM’s growth potential, such as autonomous flight, the availability of take-off and landing infrastructure (i.e., vertiports), integration into airspace and other modes of transportation, and competition with shared automated vehicles. This article discusses the results of a demand analysis examining the market potential of two potential AAM passenger markets—airport shuttles and air taxis. The airport shuttle market envisions AAM passenger service to, from, or between airports along fixed routes. The air taxi market envisions a more mature and scaled service that provides on-demand point-to-point passenger services throughout urban areas. Using a multi-method approach comprised of AAM travel demand modeling, Monte Carlo simulations, and constraint analysis, this study estimates that the air taxi and airport shuttle markets could capture a 0.5% mode share. The analysis concludes that AAM could replace non-discretionary trips greater than 45 min; however, demand for discretionary trips would be limited by consumer willingness to pay. This study concludes that AAM passenger services could have a daily demand of 82,000 passengers served by approximately 4000 four- to five-seat aircraft in the U.S., under the most conservative scenario, representing an annual market valuation of 2.5 billion USD.

Suggested Citation

  • Goyal, Rohit & Reiche, Colleen & Fernando, Chris & Cohen, Adam, 2021. "Advanced Air Mobility: Demand Analysis and Market Potential of the Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi Markets," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt4b3998tw, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt4b3998tw
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    1. Cohen, Adam P & Shaheen, Susan A PhD & Farrar, Emily M, 2021. "Urban Air Mobility: History, Ecosystem, Market Potential, and Challenges," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt8nh0s83q, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Changju & Bae, Bumjoon & Lee, Yu Lim & Pak, Tae-Young, 2023. "Societal acceptance of urban air mobility based on the technology adoption framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. Janotta, Frederica & Hogreve, Jens, 2024. "Ready for take-off? The dual role of affective and cognitive evaluations in the adoption of Urban Air Mobility services," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    3. Long, Qi & Ma, Jun & Jiang, Feifeng & Webster, Christopher John, 2023. "Demand analysis in urban air mobility: A literature review," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Bridgelall, Raj, 2023. "Forecasting market opportunities for urban and regional air mobility," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    5. Hae Choi, Jong & Park, Yonghwa, 2022. "Exploring economic feasibility for airport shuttle service of urban air mobility (UAM)," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 267-281.
    6. Brunelli, Matteo & Ditta, Chiara Caterina & Postorino, Maria Nadia, 2023. "SP surveys to estimate Airport Shuttle demand in an Urban Air Mobility context," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 129-139.
    7. Ariza-Montes, Antonio & Quan, Wei & Radic, Aleksandar & Koo, Bonhak & Kim, Jinkyung Jenny & Chua, Bee-Lia & Han, Heesup, 2023. "Understanding the behavioral intention to use urban air autonomous vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Pons-Prats, Jordi & Živojinović, Tanja & Kuljanin, Jovana, 2022. "On the understanding of the current status of urban air mobility development and its future prospects: Commuting in a flying vehicle as a new paradigm," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    9. Mingkai Wang & Saulo O. D. Luiz & Shuguang Zhang & Antonio M. N. Lima, 2023. "Electric Flight in Extreme and Uncertain Urban Environments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-22, August.
    10. Jaeho Yoo & Yunseon Choe & Soo-i Rim, 2022. "Risk Perceptions Using Urban and Advanced Air Mobility (UAM/AAM) by Applying a Mixed Method Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-14, December.

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