IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/itsrrp/qt4b3998tw.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Advanced Air Mobility: Demand Analysis and Market Potential of the Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Goyal, Rohit
  • Reiche, Colleen
  • Fernando, Chris
  • Cohen, Adam

Abstract

Advanced air mobility (AAM) is a broad concept enabling consumers access to on-demand air mobility, cargo and package delivery, healthcare applications, and emergency services through an integrated and connected multimodal transportation network. However, a number of challenges could impact AAM’s growth potential, such as autonomous flight, the availability of take-off and landing infrastructure (i.e., vertiports), integration into airspace and other modes of transportation, and competition with shared automated vehicles. This article discusses the results of a demand analysis examining the market potential of two potential AAM passenger markets—airport shuttles and air taxis. The airport shuttle market envisions AAM passenger service to, from, or between airports along fixed routes. The air taxi market envisions a more mature and scaled service that provides on-demand point-to-point passenger services throughout urban areas. Using a multi-method approach comprised of AAM travel demand modeling, Monte Carlo simulations, and constraint analysis, this study estimates that the air taxi and airport shuttle markets could capture a 0.5% mode share. The analysis concludes that AAM could replace non-discretionary trips greater than 45 min; however, demand for discretionary trips would be limited by consumer willingness to pay. This study concludes that AAM passenger services could have a daily demand of 82,000 passengers served by approximately 4000 four- to five-seat aircraft in the U.S., under the most conservative scenario, representing an annual market valuation of 2.5 billion USD.

Suggested Citation

  • Goyal, Rohit & Reiche, Colleen & Fernando, Chris & Cohen, Adam, 2021. "Advanced Air Mobility: Demand Analysis and Market Potential of the Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi Markets," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt4b3998tw, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt4b3998tw
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/4b3998tw.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cohen, Adam P & Shaheen, Susan A PhD & Farrar, Emily M, 2021. "Urban Air Mobility: History, Ecosystem, Market Potential, and Challenges," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt8nh0s83q, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Changju & Bae, Bumjoon & Lee, Yu Lim & Pak, Tae-Young, 2023. "Societal acceptance of urban air mobility based on the technology adoption framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. Bridgelall, Raj, 2023. "Forecasting market opportunities for urban and regional air mobility," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    3. Janotta, Frederica & Hogreve, Jens, 2024. "Ready for take-off? The dual role of affective and cognitive evaluations in the adoption of Urban Air Mobility services," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    4. Hae Choi, Jong & Park, Yonghwa, 2022. "Exploring economic feasibility for airport shuttle service of urban air mobility (UAM)," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 267-281.
    5. Long, Qi & Ma, Jun & Jiang, Feifeng & Webster, Christopher John, 2023. "Demand analysis in urban air mobility: A literature review," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Brunelli, Matteo & Ditta, Chiara Caterina & Postorino, Maria Nadia, 2023. "SP surveys to estimate Airport Shuttle demand in an Urban Air Mobility context," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 129-139.
    7. Jaeho Yoo & Yunseon Choe & Soo-i Rim, 2022. "Risk Perceptions Using Urban and Advanced Air Mobility (UAM/AAM) by Applying a Mixed Method Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Ariza-Montes, Antonio & Quan, Wei & Radic, Aleksandar & Koo, Bonhak & Kim, Jinkyung Jenny & Chua, Bee-Lia & Han, Heesup, 2023. "Understanding the behavioral intention to use urban air autonomous vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Pons-Prats, Jordi & Živojinović, Tanja & Kuljanin, Jovana, 2022. "On the understanding of the current status of urban air mobility development and its future prospects: Commuting in a flying vehicle as a new paradigm," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    10. Mingkai Wang & Saulo O. D. Luiz & Shuguang Zhang & Antonio M. N. Lima, 2023. "Electric Flight in Extreme and Uncertain Urban Environments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-22, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pons-Prats, Jordi & Živojinović, Tanja & Kuljanin, Jovana, 2022. "On the understanding of the current status of urban air mobility development and its future prospects: Commuting in a flying vehicle as a new paradigm," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. Emeka Austin Ndaguba & Jua Cilliers & Sumita Ghosh, 2022. "A Systematic Review of a City in a City: An Aerotropolitan Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-25, September.
    3. Bridgelall, Raj, 2023. "Forecasting market opportunities for urban and regional air mobility," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    4. Brunelli, Matteo & Ditta, Chiara Caterina & Postorino, Maria Nadia, 2023. "SP surveys to estimate Airport Shuttle demand in an Urban Air Mobility context," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 129-139.
    5. Snežana Tadić & Mladen Krstić & Ljubica Radovanović, 2024. "Assessing Strategies to Overcome Barriers for Drone Usage in Last-Mile Logistics: A Novel Hybrid Fuzzy MCDM Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-25, January.
    6. Zhong, Gang & Du, Sen & Zhang, Honghai & Zhou, Jiangying & Liu, Hao, 2024. "Demarcation method of safety separations for sUAV based on collision risk estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    7. Lee, Changju & Bae, Bumjoon & Lee, Yu Lim & Pak, Tae-Young, 2023. "Societal acceptance of urban air mobility based on the technology adoption framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Ariza-Montes, Antonio & Quan, Wei & Radic, Aleksandar & Koo, Bonhak & Kim, Jinkyung Jenny & Chua, Bee-Lia & Han, Heesup, 2023. "Understanding the behavioral intention to use urban air autonomous vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Wei, Qinshuang & Gao, Zhenyu & Clarke, John-Paul & Topcu, Ufuk, 2024. "Risk-aware urban air mobility network design with overflow redundancy," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    10. Rohit Goyal & Colleen Reiche & Chris Fernando & Adam Cohen, 2021. "Advanced Air Mobility: Demand Analysis and Market Potential of the Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-15, July.
    11. Chiara Caterina Ditta & Maria Nadia Postorino, 2023. "Three-Dimensional Urban Air Networks for Future Urban Air Transport Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-21, September.
    12. Hae Choi, Jong & Park, Yonghwa, 2022. "Exploring economic feasibility for airport shuttle service of urban air mobility (UAM)," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 267-281.
    13. Annitsa Koumoutsidi & Ioanna Pagoni & Amalia Polydoropoulou, 2022. "A New Mobility Era: Stakeholders’ Insights regarding Urban Air Mobility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, March.
    14. Karimi, Sina & Karami, Hossein & Samadzad, Mahdi, 2024. "The role of travel satisfaction and attitudes toward travel modes in the prospect of adoption of urban air taxis: Evidence from a stated preference survey in Tehran," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    15. Karami, Hossein & Abbasi, Mohammadhossein & Samadzad, Mahdi & Karami, Ali, 2024. "Unraveling behavioral factors influencing the adoption of urban air mobility from the end user's perspective in Tehran – A developing country outlook," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 74-84.
    16. Long, Qi & Ma, Jun & Jiang, Feifeng & Webster, Christopher John, 2023. "Demand analysis in urban air mobility: A literature review," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    17. Jaeho Yoo & Yunseon Choe & Soo-i Rim, 2022. "Risk Perceptions Using Urban and Advanced Air Mobility (UAM/AAM) by Applying a Mixed Method Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-14, December.
    18. Shaheen, Susan & Cohen, Adam & Broader, Jacquelyn, 2022. "Shared Mobility in Low- and High-Income Regions," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt8kt9q81w, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    19. Bridgelall, Raj & Askarzadeh, Taraneh & Tolliver, Denver D., 2023. "Introducing an efficiency index to evaluate eVTOL designs," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    20. Mingkai Wang & Saulo O. D. Luiz & Shuguang Zhang & Antonio M. N. Lima, 2023. "Electric Flight in Extreme and Uncertain Urban Environments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-22, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social and Behavioral Sciences;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt4b3998tw. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/itucbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.