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Traffic Predictive Control: Case Study and Evaluation

Author

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  • Coogan, Samuel
  • Dutreix, Maxence

Abstract

This project developed a quantile regression method for predicting future traffic flow at a signalized intersection by combining both historical and real-time data. The algorithm exploits nonlinear correlations in historical measurements and efficiently solves a quantile loss optimization problem using the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM). The resulting parameter vectors allow determining a probability distribution of upcoming traffic flow. These predictions establish an efficient, delay-minimizing control policy for the intersection. The approach is demonstrated on a case study with two years of high resolution flow measurements. It is emphasized that the results are applicable to any traffic intersection equipped with sensors that provide sufficiently high resolution of data acquisition. In particular, the data must have sufficient spatial resolution, e.g., measuring turning counts, and sufficient temporal resolution, e.g., measurements each 15 minutes. For example, numerous sites in California, including a large number of intersections in LA County, possess sensors that provide the required data to a central server.

Suggested Citation

  • Coogan, Samuel & Dutreix, Maxence, 2017. "Traffic Predictive Control: Case Study and Evaluation," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt0bs645m2, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt0bs645m2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kurzhanskiy, Alex A. & Varaiya, Pravin, 2015. "Traffic management: An outlook," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 135-146.
    2. Coogan, Samuel & Flores, Christopher & Varaiya, Pravin, 2017. "Traffic predictive control from low-rank structure," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-22.
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