IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/itsdav/qt70t9n2r3.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Multi-Stage Investment Timing Game in Offshore Petroleum Production: Preliminary results from an econometric model

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia

Abstract

This paper uses a structural econometric model to analyze the investment timing game in offshore petroleum production that ensues on wildcat tracts in U.S. federal lands off the Gulf of Mexico. When individual petroleum-producing firms make their exploration and development investment timing decisions, there are two types of externalities that they do not internalize: an information externality and an extraction externality. The model I develop enables me to estimate the structural parameters governing each firm’s investment timing decisions and therefore to assess the net effect of these externalities. According to my results, the extraction externality appears to dominate the information externality. Moreover, decreasing the lease term may increase ex ante tract value and hence government profits. The econometric methodology presented in this paper can be employed to analyze any problem of dynamic multi-stage strategic decision making in the presence of externalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia, 2007. "The Multi-Stage Investment Timing Game in Offshore Petroleum Production: Preliminary results from an econometric model," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt70t9n2r3, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt70t9n2r3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/70t9n2r3.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary D. Libecap & James L. Smith, 2001. "Regulatory Remedies to the Common Pool: The Limits to Oil Field Unitization," The Energy Journal, , vol. 22(1), pages 1-26, January.
    2. Porter, Robert H, 1995. "The Role of Information in U.S. Offshore Oil and Gas Lease Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 1-27, January.
    3. James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
    4. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    5. Hurn, A S & Wright, Robert E, 1994. "Geology or Economics? Testing Models of Irreversible Investment Using North Sea Oil Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 363-371, March.
    6. Ariel Pakes & Michael Ostrovsky & Steven Berry, 2007. "Simple estimators for the parameters of discrete dynamic games (with entry/exit examples)," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(2), pages 373-399, June.
    7. Libecap, Gary D & Wiggins, Steven N, 1985. "The Influence of Private Contractual Failure on Regulation: The Case of Oil Field Unitization," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 690-714, August.
    8. Chamberlain, Gary, 1987. "Asymptotic efficiency in estimation with conditional moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 305-334, March.
    9. Kenneth Hendricks & Dan Kovenock, 1989. "Asymmetric Information, Information Externalities, and Efficiency: The Case of Oil Exploration," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 20(2), pages 164-182, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin, C.Y. Cynthia, 2009. "Do Firms Interact Strategically?," Working Papers 225896, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    2. Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Leighty, Wayne, 2007. "Government Leasing Policy and the Multi-Stage Investment Timing Game in Offshore Petroleum Production," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt0x81x3jp, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    3. Klaus Mohn & Petter Osmundsen, 2011. "Asymmetry and uncertainty in capital formation: an application to oil investment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(28), pages 4387-4401.
    4. Muehlenbachs, Lucija, 2012. "Testing for Avoidance of Environmental Obligations," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-12, Resources for the Future.
    5. Bulan, Laarni T., 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    6. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    7. Lucija Muehlenbachs, 2015. "A Dynamic Model Of Cleanup: Estimating Sunk Costs In Oil And Gas Production," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(1), pages 155-185, February.
    8. Knaut, Andreas & Madlener, Reinhard & Rosen, Christiane & Vogt, Christian, 2012. "Effects of Temperature Uncertainty on the Valuation of Geothermal Projects: A Real Options Approach," FCN Working Papers 11/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    9. Mohn, Klaus & Misund, Bård, 2008. "Shifting sentiments in Firm Investment: An Application to the Oil Industry," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/12, University of Stavanger.
    10. Laarni T. Bulan, 2005. "Real options, irreversible investment and firm uncertainty: New evidence from U.S. firms," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 255-279.
    11. Mohn, Klaus & Misund, Bård, 2009. "Investment and uncertainty in the international oil and gas industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-248, March.
    12. Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia, 2009. "Estimating strategic interactions in petroleum exploration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 586-594, July.
    13. Guedes, José & Santos, Pedro, 2016. "Valuing an offshore oil exploration and production project through real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 377-386.
    14. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2019. "Rescaling-contraction with a lower cost technology when revenue declines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 574-586.
    15. Santos, Lúcia & Soares, Isabel & Mendes, Carla & Ferreira, Paula, 2014. "Real Options versus Traditional Methods to assess Renewable Energy Projects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 588-594.
    16. Foreman, R. Dean & Kleit, Andrew N., 2023. "Is prorationing efficiency-enhancing or rent-seeking?: Evidence from a natural experiment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Seiji Harikae & James S. Dyer & Tianyang Wang, 2021. "Valuing Real Options in the Volatile Real World," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 171-189, January.
    18. Michael Dooley & Peter Isard & Mark Taylor, 1992. "Exchange Rates, Country Preferences, and Gold," NBER Working Papers 4183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Henley, Andrew, 2009. "Switching Costs and Occupational Transition into Self-Employment," IZA Discussion Papers 3969, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2002. "Patents and R& D as Real Options," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt86b1n43k, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    UCD-ITS-RR-07-29; Engineering;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt70t9n2r3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/itucdus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.