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Association of the California tobacco control program with declines in lung cancer incidence

Author

Listed:
  • Barnoya, J
  • Glantz, Stanton A. Ph.D.

Abstract

Objective: The California tobacco control program enacted in 1988 has been associated with declines in smoking and heart disease mortality. Since smoking also causes lung cancer, we investigated whether the program was associated with a decline in lung and other cancer incidence. Methods: Age-adjusted incidence rates of lung and bladder cancer (which are caused by smoking) and prostate and brain cancer (which are not) in the San Francisco-Oakland (SFO) Surveillance Epidemiology End Results (SEER) registry and other eight SEER registries from 1975 to 1999 were fitted in multiple regression analyses accounting for the time lag between program implementation and its effects on cancer incidence. Cigarette consumption over time was also analyzed and related to lung cancer incidence. Results: With a one year lag, the incidence of lung cancer in SFO, relative to eight other SEER registries, fell significantly below that predicted from the pre-1990 rates, by -0.981 (cases/100,000/year)/year (p=0.001). With a three year lag, the incidence of bladder cancer fell by -0.234 (cases/100,000/year)/year (p = 0.066). No association of the program was observed on prostate or brain cancers in SFO. During the first decade, the Program was associated with about a 6% reduction in lung cancer incidence; state-wide that corresponds to about 11,000 cases avoided. Conclusion: A comprehensive tobacco control program is associated with a lower incidence of lung cancer.

Suggested Citation

  • Barnoya, J & Glantz, Stanton A. Ph.D., 2004. "Association of the California tobacco control program with declines in lung cancer incidence," University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education qt38f90581, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ctcres:qt38f90581
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    Cited by:

    1. Lightwood, James & Glantz, Stanton, 2011. "Effect of the Arizona tobacco control program on cigarette consumption and healthcare expenditures," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 166-172, January.
    2. Marco Percoco, 2015. "Heterogeneity in the reaction of traffic flows to road pricing: a synthetic control approach applied to Milan," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(6), pages 1063-1079, November.
    3. Thyrian, Jochen Rene & John, Ulrich, 2007. "Population impact--Definition, calculation and its use in prevention science in the example of tobacco smoking reduction," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 348-356, August.
    4. Xiao-Han Shen & Yung-Yueh Chang & Rong-Qi Pham & Wei-An Chen & Fang-Yu Li & Wan-Chin Huang & Yu-Wen Lin, 2023. "Secular-Trend Analysis of the Incidence Rate of Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Taiwan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-11, January.
    5. Jing Chen, 2023. "A Comparative Analysis of Lung Cancer Incidence and Tobacco Consumption in Canada, Norway and Sweden: A Population-Based Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(20), pages 1-8, October.

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