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Secular-Trend Analysis of the Incidence Rate of Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Taiwan

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  • Xiao-Han Shen

    (Master Program of Big Data in Biomedicine, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan)

  • Yung-Yueh Chang

    (Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, No. 17, Xu-Zhou Rd., Taipei City 10055, Taiwan)

  • Rong-Qi Pham

    (Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan)

  • Wei-An Chen

    (Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan)

  • Fang-Yu Li

    (Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan)

  • Wan-Chin Huang

    (Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan)

  • Yu-Wen Lin

    (Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan
    Data Science Center, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510 Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan)

Abstract

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide, and squamous cell carcinoma (SQC) is Taiwan’s second most common lung carcinoma histotype. This study aimed to investigate changes in the long-term trend of the SQC incidence rate in Taiwan. SQC cases between 1985 and 2019 were adopted from Taiwan‘s Cancer Registry System; the age-adjusted incidence rate was calculated using the World Standard Population in 2000. The long-term trends of the age, period, and birth cohort effect of SQC incidence rates were estimated using the SEER Age-Period-Cohort Web Tool. The results revealed that the incidence of lung carcinoma in Taiwan increased, while the incidence of SQC exhibited a slight decrease during this study period. The age rate ratio (ARR) of the incidence rate in men declined gradually, and the period effect changed more slowly for women than men. The cohort effect formed a bimodal curve. The annual percentage change results for women indicated that the ARR decreased from 1.652 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.422, 1.9192) at 30 to 34 years to 0.559 (95% CI: 0.4988, 0.6265) at 75 to 79 years; the period effect decreased from 1.2204 (95% CI: 1.1148, 1.336) in 1995 to 1999 to 0.608 (95% CI: 0.5515, 0.6704) in 2015 to 2019, with a greater decline in the later period. The cohort effect was unimodal, with the SQC risk value peaking in the 1915 birth cohort and exhibiting a steady decline thereafter. The results of this study suggest that a decrease in the smoking rate may be the reason for the decline in the incidence of SQC, and we observed a similar trend between SQC and the smoking rate in men.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao-Han Shen & Yung-Yueh Chang & Rong-Qi Pham & Wei-An Chen & Fang-Yu Li & Wan-Chin Huang & Yu-Wen Lin, 2023. "Secular-Trend Analysis of the Incidence Rate of Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Taiwan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-11, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:2:p:1614-:d:1037362
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric Bender, 2014. "Epidemiology: The dominant malignancy," Nature, Nature, vol. 513(7517), pages 2-3, September.
    2. Barnoya, J & Glantz, Stanton A. Ph.D., 2004. "Association of the California tobacco control program with declines in lung cancer incidence," University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education qt38f90581, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco.
    3. Claudia Musial & Renata Zaucha & Alicja Kuban-Jankowska & Lucyna Konieczna & Mariusz Belka & Antonella Marino Gammazza & Tomasz Baczek & Francesco Cappello & Michal Wozniak & Magdalena Gorska-Ponikows, 2021. "Plausible Role of Estrogens in Pathogenesis, Progression and Therapy of Lung Cancer," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-15, January.
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