IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdf/wpaper/2018-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Understanding International Long-Term Interest Rate Comovement

Author

Listed:
  • Chin, Michael

    (Norges Bank Investment Management)

  • Graeve, Ferre De

    (KU Leuven)

  • Filippeli, Thomai

    (Queen Mary University)

  • Theodoridis, Konstantinos

    (Cardiff Business School)

Abstract

Long-term interest rates of small open economies correlate strongly with the US long-term rate. Can central banks in those countries decouple from the US? An estimated DSGE model for the UK (vis-`a-vis the US) establishes three structural empirical results. (1) Comovement arises due to nominal fluctuations, not through real rates or term premia. (2) The cause of comovement is the central bank of the small open economy accommodating foreign inflation trends, rather than systematically curbing them. (3) Small open economies may find themselves much more affected by changes in US inflation trends than the US itself.

Suggested Citation

  • Chin, Michael & Graeve, Ferre De & Filippeli, Thomai & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "Understanding International Long-Term Interest Rate Comovement," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/19, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2018/19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://carbsecon.com/wp/E2018_19.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juan Antolin-Diaz & Thomas Drechsel & Ivan Petrella, 2017. "Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 343-356, May.
    2. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
    3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    4. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2011. "Introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 1999-2041.
    5. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    6. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    7. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc P. Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 235-316.
    8. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    9. Harrison, Richard, 2012. "Asset purchase policy at the effective lower bound for interest rates," Bank of England working papers 444, Bank of England.
    10. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2023. "The Federal Reserve'S Implicit Inflation Target And Macroeconomic Dynamics: An Svar Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1749-1775, November.
    11. Andrés, Javier & López-Salido, J David & Nelson, Edward, 2004. "Tobin's Imperfect Asset Substitution in Optimizing General Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 4336, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
    13. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2011. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations: A regime‐switching DSGE approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(2), pages 251-301, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin Feldkircher & Gabriele Tondl, 2020. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 225-247, August.
    2. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    3. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Forecasting in the euro area: The role of the US long rate," Economic Letters 5/EL/19, Central Bank of Ireland.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Chin & Thomai Filippeli & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Cross-Country Co-movement in Long-Term Interest Rates: A DSGE Approach," Working Papers 753, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2023. "The Federal Reserve'S Implicit Inflation Target And Macroeconomic Dynamics: An Svar Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1749-1775, November.
    3. Alban Moura, 2020. "LED: An estimated DSGE model of the Luxembourg economy for policy analysis," BCL working papers 147, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    4. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Ricardo Félix & Gabriela Castro & José Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Small Euro Area Economy: How Big Can They Get in Crisis Times?," EcoMod2013 5307, EcoMod.
    6. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    7. Benjamín García & Sebastián Guarda & Markus Kirchner & Rodrigo Tranamil, 2019. "XMAS: An extended model for analysis and simulations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 833, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Jacob, Punnoose & Munro, Anella, 2018. "A prudential stable funding requirement and monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 89-106.
    9. Kamber, Gunes & McDonald, Chris & Sander, Nick & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2016. "Modelling the business cycle of a small open economy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 546-569.
    10. Güneş Kamber & Chris McDonald & Nicholas Sander & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "A structural model for policy analysis and forecasting: NZSIM," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    11. Juan Guerra-Salas & Markus Kirchner & Rodrigo Tranamil, 2021. "Search Frictions and the Business Cycle in a Small Open Economy DSGE Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 258-279, January.
    12. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
    13. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "The Federal Reserve’s implicit inflation target and Macroeconomic dynamics. A SVAR analysis," Working Papers 173173908, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    14. Thomas Brand, 2017. "Vitesse et composition des ajustements budgétaires en équilibre général : une analyse appliquée à la zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(HS1), pages 159-182.
    15. Mihai Copaciu & Joana Madjoska & Mite Miteski, 2021. "A DSGE Model with Partial Euroization: The Case of the Macedonian Economy," Economy, Business & Development: An International Journal, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics-Skopje, vol. 2(2), pages 57-118, November.
    16. Houssa, Romain & Mohimont, Jolan & Otrok, Christopher, 2023. "Commodity exports, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    17. Charalampidis, Nikolaos, 2020. "On unemployment cycles in the Euro Area, 1999–2018," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. repec:bny:wpaper:0022 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:bny:wpaper:0039 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    21. Sami Alpanda & Uluc Aysun & Serdar Kabaca, 2022. "International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers," Working Papers 2022-01, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    22. Markus Kirchner & Malte Rieth, 2021. "Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary–Fiscal Stabilization," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 391-426, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE Model; Small Open Economy; Yield Curve; Long-Term Interest Rates; Term Premia; Comovement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2018/19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yongdeng Xu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecscfuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.