IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdf/wpaper/2018-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Oil and Commodities Drive the World Business Cycle: A Long-Commodity-Cycle Model of the World Economy Over a Century and a Half

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper explores the world business cycle using unfiltered data from 1870 and looks for a theory that could account for the long wave commodity cycle in the world economy. We build a simple DSGE model that includes a long time-to-build constraint in the commodity sector. We find that this model can produce long cycles in output and commodity prices as introduced by Kontradieff (1925) and Schumpeter (1935). Our findings show that these long business cycles are produced by the long gestation of commodity capacity which causes very large swings in commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2018. "Oil and Commodities Drive the World Business Cycle: A Long-Commodity-Cycle Model of the World Economy Over a Century and a Half," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/16, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2018/16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://carbsecon.com/wp/E2018_16.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2016. "Comparing different data descriptors in Indirect Inference tests on DSGE models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 157-161.
    3. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    4. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Svensson, Lars E.O., 2014. "Monetary policy trade-offs in an estimated open-economy DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 33-49.
    5. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    6. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), . "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226577838, July.
    7. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2016. "Monetarism rides again? US monetary policy in a world of Quantitative Easing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 85-102.
    8. Gianluca Benigno & Christoph Thoenissen, 2003. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply-Side Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 103-124, March.
    9. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2011. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2078-2104.
    10. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    12. Martin Eichenbaum & Jonathan A. Parker, 2017. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number eich-3.
    13. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-38, February.
    14. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison & Zhenhua Zhu, 2004. "A Structural Small Open-Economy Model for Canada," Staff Working Papers 04-4, Bank of Canada.
    15. Nordhaus, William D, 1974. "Resources as a Constraint on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(2), pages 22-26, May.
    16. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    17. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
    18. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), . "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226490229, September.
    19. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    20. Gordon, David M & Weisskopf, Thomas E & Bowles, Samuel, 1983. "Long Swings and the Nonreproductive Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 152-157, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2019. "A long-commodity-cycle model of the world economy over a century and a half — Making bricks with little straw," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 503-518.
    2. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2019. "Testing DSGE Models by Indirect Inference: a Survey of Recent Findings," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 593-620, July.
    3. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2018. "The small sample properties of Indirect Inference in testing and estimating DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    4. Pytlarczyk, Ernest, 2005. "An estimated DSGE model for the German economy within the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,33, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    6. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2011. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, February.
    7. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xiao, Zhiguo, 2021. "Shadow banks, banking policies and China’s macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2016. "What is the truth about DSGE models? Testing by indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2016/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "On DSGE Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 113-140, Summer.
    10. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2017. "A Monte Carlo procedure for checking identification in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 202-210.
    11. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2018. "Publish and Perish: Creative Destruction and Macroeconomic Theory," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 65-101.
    12. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2016. "Money and Output: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1223-1266, September.
    13. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael R. Wickens, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Controversy Over Price Rigidity — How to Resolve it and How Bayesian Estimation has Led us Astray," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 617-630, September.
    14. Loberto, Michele & Perricone, Chiara, 2017. "Does trend inflation make a difference?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 351-375.
    15. Jordi Gali & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Working Papers 10636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2019. "Testing Part of a DSGE Model by Indirect Inference," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(1), pages 178-194, February.
    17. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Yongdeng Xu, 2024. "Indirect Inference and Small Sample Bias — Some Recent Results," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 245-259, April.
    18. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.
    19. Phuong Mai Le, Vo & Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xiao, Zhiguo, 2022. "Regulatory arbitrage, shadow banking and monetary policy in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," NBER Working Papers 24154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long waves; commodities; DSGE model; Indirect Inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2018/16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yongdeng Xu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecscfuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.