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A DSGE Model of China

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  • Minford, Patrick
  • Dai, Li
  • Zhou, Peng

Abstract

We use available methods for testing macro models to evaluate a model of China over the period from Deng Xiaoping's reforms up until the crisis period. Bayesian ranking methods are heavily influenced by controversial priors on the degree of price/wage rigidity. When the overall models are tested by Likelihood or Indirect Inference methods, the New Keynesian model is rejected in favour of one with a fair-sized competitive product market sector. This model behaves quite a lot more 'flexibly' than the New Keynesian.

Suggested Citation

  • Minford, Patrick & Dai, Li & Zhou, Peng, 2014. "A DSGE Model of China," CEPR Discussion Papers 10238, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10238
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    4. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2010. "The 'Puzzles' methodology: En route to Indirect Inference?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1417-1428, November.
    5. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2011. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2078-2104.
    6. Vo Le & Kent Matthews & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Zhiguo Xiao, 2014. "Banking and the Macroeconomy in China: A Banking Crisis Deferred?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 123-161, February.
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    15. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2012. "Testing DSGE models by Indirect inference and other methods: some Monte Carlo experiments," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Van Nguyen, Phuong, 2020. "The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model," Dynare Working Papers 56, CEPREMAP.
    2. M.Emranul Haque & Paul Middleditch & Shuonan Zhang, 2018. "Financial development and innovation: A DSGE comparison of Chinese and US business cycles," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 244, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. Chaowei Wang & Vo Phuong Mai Le & Kent Matthews & Peng Zhou, 2021. "Shadow banking activity and entrusted loans in a DSGE model of China," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(5), pages 445-469, September.
    4. Vo Phuong Mai Le & Kent Matthews & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Zhiguo Xiao, 2021. "China’s market economy, shadow banking and the frequency of growth slowdown," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(5), pages 420-444, September.
    5. Audzei, Volha & Brůha, Jan, 2022. "A model of the Euro area, China, and the United States: Trade links and trade wars," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Amedeo Argentiero, Tarek Atalla, Simona Bigerna, Silvia Micheli, and Paolo Polinori, 2017. "Comparing Renewable Energy Policies in EU-15, U.S. and China: A Bayesian DSGE Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(KAPSARC S).
    7. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2015. "Small sample performance of indirect inference on DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    8. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-38, February.
    9. Patrick Minford, 2010. "The Banking Crisis: A Rational Interpretation," Political Studies Review, Political Studies Association, vol. 8(1), pages 40-54, January.
    10. Jin, Tao & Kwok, Simon & Zheng, Xin, 2022. "Financial wealth, investment, and confidence in a DSGE model for China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 114-134.
    11. Phuong V. Nguyen, 2020. "The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(5), pages 1035-1063, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian inference; China; Dsge; indirect inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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