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Strength of Partisan and Candidate Ties in India

Author

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  • Aditi Singhal

    (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics)

Abstract

This study estimates the impact of incumbency on re-election prospects of parties and candidates in India, between 1977 and 2014, for Lok Sabha elections. We make use of regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal effect of incumbency by comparing outcomes in closely fought elections. Results indicate that on an average, incumbent parties are significantly disadvantaged in comparison to non-incumbent parties. Similarly, the causal impact of incumbency on candidates highlights significant disadvantage to the incumbents. Moreover, on comparing the results, we conclude that it is a candidate who is more disadvantaged than a party. This is indicative of stronger ties amongst voters and parties rather than with candidates.

Suggested Citation

  • Aditi Singhal, 2016. "Strength of Partisan and Candidate Ties in India," Working papers 266, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:266
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    2. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    3. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
    4. Yogesh Uppal, 2009. "The disadvantaged incumbents: estimating incumbency effects in Indian state legislatures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 9-27, January.
    5. Ansolabehere, Stephen & Hirano, Shigeo & Snyder, James M. & Ueda, Michiko, 2006. "Party and Incumbency Cues in Voting: Are They Substitutes?," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 1(2), pages 119-137, March.
    6. Lee, David S., 2008. "Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 675-697, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; party; candidates; regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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