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Violence Against Politicians, Negative Campaigning, and Public Opinion: Evidence from Poland

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  • Krzysztof Krakowski
  • Juan S. Morales
  • Dani Sandu

Abstract

It is commonly viewed that violence against politicians increases support for the victim’s party. We revisit this conjecture drawing on evidence from an assas- sination of an opposition politician in Poland. First, we analyze engagement with Twitter content posted by opposition and government politicians using a difference- in-differences framework. Second, we use a public opinion survey collected in the days around the attack, and compare party preferences of respondents interviewed just before and respondents interviewed just after the attack. Our results reveal de- creased support for the victim’s (opposition) party relative to support for the govern- ment. To explain this finding, we show that the opposition antagonized the public by engaging in negative campaigning against the government over their politician’s assas- sination. Content analysis of tweets and news media confirms that citizens punished the opposition for their negative campaigning after the violence. Tentative evidence suggests that these effects could have had long-run political consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Krzysztof Krakowski & Juan S. Morales & Dani Sandu, 2020. "Violence Against Politicians, Negative Campaigning, and Public Opinion: Evidence from Poland," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 624 JEL Classification: D, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    • Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:624
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    1. Morales, Juan S., 2021. "Legislating during war: Conflict and politics in Colombia," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

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