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Resurrecting the UK Sector National Accounts after 1945

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  • Bill Martin

Abstract

Building on the methodology explained in Martin (2009), this paper sets itself the task of backcasting the UK national sectoral accounts before 1987, the date prior to which fully comprehensive data are not provided by the Office for National Statistics. Backcast data cover the private, government and overseas sectors. Innovations compared with the earlier paper include the extension of the dataset to begin in 1946 rather than 1948, and, more importantly, an attempt to backcast financial balances for the household and corporate sectors. This attempt involves the backcasting of pension saving before 1963 and of major components of the household and corporate capital account before 1987. The household and corporate sector data are likely subject to greater measurement error than estimates for more aggregate sector balances, as shown in Martin (2009) and provisionally upheld in this paper by simple tests of stability across different data vintages. Subject to further verification and improvements, now in prospect, in official historic data, the derived postwar sectoral estimates may nevertheless enable more robust testing of a variety of long-run macroeconomic hypotheses.

Suggested Citation

  • Bill Martin, 2019. "Resurrecting the UK Sector National Accounts after 1945," Working Papers wp514, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp514
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    File URL: https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/cbrwp514/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
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    5. David Blake & J. Michael Orszag, 1999. "Annual estimates of personal wealth holdings in the United Kingdom since 1948," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 397-421.
    6. Peter ven de Ven & Anne Harrison & Barbara Fraumeni & Anne Harrison, 2017. "W(h)ither the SNA?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63, pages 208-222, December.
    7. Alan J. Auerbach, 1982. "Issues in the Measurement and Determinants of Business Saving," NBER Working Papers 1024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bill Martin, 2007. "Resurrecting the UK Historic Sector National Accounts," Working Papers wp356, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    9. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    10. Sarah Levy, 2011. "Pensions in the National Accounts: Compiling a complete picture of UK pensions including unfunded pensions for public sector employees," Economic & Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan;Office for National Statistics, vol. 5(8), pages 1-26, August.
    11. Mai Dao & Chiara Maggi, 2018. "The Rise in Corporate Saving and Cash Holding in Advanced Economies: Aggregate and Firm Level Trends," IMF Working Papers 2018/262, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bill Martin, 2020. "Resurrecting the UK Corporate Sector Accounts," Working Papers wp519, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    National accounts; financial balances; macroeconomics; UK;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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