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The Great Irish (De)Leveraging 2005-14

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  • Lydon, Reamonn

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • McIndoe-Calder, Tara

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

Drawing on the 2013 Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and complementary administrative data sources, we simulate household balance sheets at the micro level for the 2005-14 period. We use this dataset to tell the story of household leveraging and deleveraging over a tumultuous period for the Irish economy. We show that deleveraging has proceeded at a signficantly faster pace for older households, when compared with younger age groups. In contrast, we find that a higher-incidence of tracker mortgages amongst younger borrowers – which passed through the historically low ECB policy rates since 2009 – relative to older borrowers has played a major role in easing the debt repayment burden in the presence of large income shocks. Notwithstanding historically low interest rates, we show that income shocks are the main factor contributing to mortgage repayment problems. However, there is also a role for equity factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Lydon, Reamonn & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2017. "The Great Irish (De)Leveraging 2005-14," Research Technical Papers 05/RT/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:05/rt/17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ampudia, Miguel & Pavlickova, Akmaral & Slacalek, Jiri & Vogel, Edgar, 2016. "Household heterogeneity in the euro area since the onset of the Great Recession," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 181-197.
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    3. Kelly, Jane & Kennedy, Gerard & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2014. "Interest-only mortgages in Ireland," Economic Letters 05/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Lawless, Martina & Lydon, Reamonn & McIndoe-Calder, 2015. "The Financial Position of Irish Households," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 66-89, January.
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    7. Goggin, Jean & Holton, Sarah & Kelly, Jane & Lydon, Reamonn & McQuinn, Kieran, 2012. "The financial crisis and the pricing of interest rates in the Irish mortgage market: 2003-2011," Research Technical Papers 01/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
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    11. Coates, Dermot & Lydon, Reamonn & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2015. "House price volatility: The role of different buyer types," Economic Letters 02/EL/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
    12. McGuinness, Anne, 2014. "Mortgage Repayments after Permanent Modification," Economic Letters 07/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. McCarthy, Yvonne, 2014. "Dis-entangling the mortgage arrears crisis: The rolw of the labour market, income volatility and housing equity," Research Technical Papers 02/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
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    16. Danne, Christian & McGuinness, Anne, 2016. "Mortgage modifications and loan performance," Research Technical Papers 05/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
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    Cited by:

    1. McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2017. "Debt giveth and debt taketh away: mortgage debt burdens in Ireland," Economic Letters 11/EL/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 17-37.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Households; Debt; Assets; Income; Deleveraging.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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