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Predicción mediante algoritmos genéticos con matriz de transición. Una aplicación a la demanda turística de Tenerife

Author

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  • Montserrat Hernández López

    (Dpto. de Economía de las Instituciones, Estadística Económica y Econometría Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales; Universidad de La Laguna Campus de Guajara.38071 La Laguna; 38071; La Laguna; Tenerife.Islas Canarias.España Teléfono: 922317032)

Abstract

Aunque los algoritmos genéticos se diseñaron originalmente como método de optimización, también pueden ser utilizados, en el contexto económico, como herramienta predictiva de los cambios en la composición de una población, en términos de las características individuales de los agentes que la componen. En este documento, se desarrolla un algoritmo genético específico capaz de predecir los cambios en las características de los turistas que visitan el sur de Tenerife. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren la conveniencia de sustituir los tradicionales operadores de cruce y mutación por la acción de una adecuada matriz de transición. Esta matriz dirige la dinámica de transformación de la población en el sentido de que permite introducir consideraciones económicas que otorgan mayores probabilidades a ciertas transformaciones en las características de los turistas que visitan la Isla.

Suggested Citation

  • Montserrat Hernández López, 2005. "Predicción mediante algoritmos genéticos con matriz de transición. Una aplicación a la demanda turística de Tenerife," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2005-02, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC.
    • Handle: RePEc:can:series:2005-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Venkatesan, Rajkumar & Kumar, V., 2002. "A genetic algorithms approach to growth phase forecasting of wireless subscribers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 625-646.
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    Keywords

    Algoritmos genéticos; predicción económica; operadores genéticos; matriz de transición.;
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