IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/2472.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Digitalization and Productivity Growth Slowdown in Production Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Sen, A.

Abstract

I examine the recent productivity growth slowdown and the emergence of digital technologies through the lens of production networks. Digital technologies are increasingly embedded in intermediate inputs, and digital-intensive sectors, often key producers of intermediate and capital goods, amplify the positive effects of these technologies across industries. I show that the slowdown in computer-specific technical change has contributed to the decline in aggregate productivity growth, particularly in digital-intensive service industries, with these effects spreading through the economy via intersectoral linkages. My estimates suggest that this accounts for around 45–55% of the productivity growth slowdown in both the UK and the US since the mid-2000s. I attribute this slowdown largely to structural changes within the computers industry, especially the rising value-added intensity of the sector. In general, production in digital technology-producing industries is characterized by perfect complementarity, explaining the waning effects of digital technologies on aggregate productivity since the mid-2000s. In light of these findings, I take a pessimistic view on the future of productivity growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Sen, A., 2024. "Digitalization and Productivity Growth Slowdown in Production Networks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2472, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2472
    Note: as3372
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe2472.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oulton, Nicholas, 2001. "Must the Growth Rate Decline? Baumol's Unbalanced Growth Revisited," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 605-627, October.
    2. Harald Fadinger & Christian Ghiglino & Mariya Teteryatnikova, 2022. "Income Differences, Productivity, and Input-Output Networks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 367-415, April.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Timo Boppart & Peter J Klenow & Huiyu Li, 2023. "A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 2675-2702.
    4. Alessio Moro, 2012. "The Structural Transformation Between Manufacturing and Services and the Decline in the US GDP Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 402-415, July.
    5. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    6. Andrew T. Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2022. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(12), pages 3286-3333.
    7. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    8. L. Ngai & Roberto Samaniego, 2009. "Mapping prices into productivity in multisector growth models," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 183-204, September.
    9. Andrew Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Working Paper 19-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    10. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Say?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1559-1576, December.
    11. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-362, June.
    12. Jorge Miranda Pinto, 2021. "Production Network Structure, Service Share, and Aggregate Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 146-173, January.
    13. Grobovšek Jan, 2018. "Development accounting with intermediate goods," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-27, January.
    14. Maarten De Ridder, 2024. "Market Power and Innovation in the Intangible Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 199-251, January.
    15. De Ridder, Maarten, 2024. "Market power and innovation in the intangible economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120285, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Aum, Sangmin & Lee, Sang Yoon (Tim) & Shin, Yongseok, 2018. "Computerizing industries and routinizing jobs: Explaining trends in aggregate productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-21.
    17. Paul Gaggl & Aspen Gorry & Christian vom Lehn, 2023. "Structural Change in Production Networks and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 10460, CESifo.
    18. Alessio Moro, 2015. "Structural Change, Growth, and Volatility," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 259-294, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ali Sen, 2024. "Structural Change at a Disaggregated Level: Sectoral Heterogeneity Matters," Working Papers 048, The Productivity Institute.
    2. Paul Gaggl & Aspen Gorry & Christian vom Lehn, 2023. "Structural Change in Production Networks and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 10460, CESifo.
    3. Fangzhi Wang & Hua Liao & Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Baumol's Climate Disease," Papers 2312.00160, arXiv.org.
    4. Falck, Elisabeth & Röhe, Oke & Strobel, Johannes, 2024. "Digital transformation and its impact on labour productivity: A multi-sector perspective," Discussion Papers 28/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Domenico Delli Gatti & Roberta Terranova & Enrico Maria Turco, 2024. "Industrial Policy in Times of Market Power," CESifo Working Paper Series 11544, CESifo.
    6. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia, 2020. "Relative Prices and Sectoral Productivity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1400-1443.
    7. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    8. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2004. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth, or Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States but Not in the United Kingdom?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 9-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Alessio Moro & Omar Rachedi, 2022. "The Changing Structure Of Government Consumption Spending," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1293-1323, August.
    10. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2003. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?," NBER Working Papers 10010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Anthony Savagar & Oluwaseun Aguda & Yannis Galanakis & Jingwei Wu, 2024. "Market concentration and productivity: evidence from the UK," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(4), pages 459-482, December.
    12. Bunel, Simon & Bijnens, Gert & Botelho, Vasco & Falck, Elisabeth & Labhard, Vincent & Lamo, Ana & Röhe, Oke & Schroth, Joachim & Sellner, Richard & Strobel, Johannes & Anghel, Brindusa, 2024. "Digitalisation and productivity," Occasional Paper Series 339, European Central Bank.
    13. Kosuke Aoki & Yoshihiko Hogen & Yojiro Ito & Kenji Kanai & Kosuke Takatomi, 2024. "Determinants of Price Markups at Japanese Firms and Implications for Productivity," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-15, Bank of Japan.
    14. Eric Bartelsman & Sabien Dobbelaere & Alessandro Zona Mattioli, 2024. "Non-Compete Agreements, Tacit Knowledge and Market Imperfections," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-055/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Karam Jo & Seula Kim, 2024. "Competition, Firm Innovation, and Growth under Imperfect Technology Spillovers," Working Papers 24-40, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    16. Brad R. Humphreys & Scott Schuh & Corey J.M. Williams, "undated". "Learning by Doing, Productivity, and Growth: New Evidence on the Link between Micro and Macro Data," Working Papers 24-02, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    17. Moro, Alessio & Rachedi, Omar, 2018. "The Changing Structure of Government Spending," MPRA Paper 86577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    19. Kahn, James A. & Rich, Robert W., 2007. "Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1670-1701, September.
    20. Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian & Kecht, Valentin & Lehmann, Robert, 2022. "The diffusion of technological progress in ICT," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Digitalization; Investment-Specific Technical Change; Production Networks; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • L86 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software
    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2472. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jake Dyer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.